Thursday, July 14, 2011

Mid-Season Baseball review/preview

After a Home Run Derby which sounded like it was actually pretty good but I didn’t watch because I didn’t want any of those guys to win, and an All-Star game which was nothing special (since everyone seems to make the team now anyway) it is now time to look forward to the second half of the season.  

NL East
Well the standings are just about what we expected: Phillies, Braves, then everyone else.  Still there have been a few surprises.  The Phils have the best record in baseball despite what has been primarily an anemic offense (save the two 14 run outburst they’ve had in the past week).  Anyone who has regularly watched this team can tell you they haven’t played their best baseball, but you can’t argue with the results.  The Braves have had the same problems as the Phillies, but still are among the top teams in the league and look like a good bet for the Wild Card at this point.  The Mets and Nationals have been hanging on, and although they’re both only .500, it’s fairly impressive considering how many issues each of those teams has had.  The usually pesky Marlins have completely fallen apart, and they seem to be ready for next season and their new ballpark.
Current Standings:
1.       Phillies
2.       Braves
3.       Mets
4.       Nationals
5.       Marlins

My Pre-Season Prediction:
1.       Phillies
2.       Braves
3.       Marlins
4.       Nationals
5.       Mets

Mid-season Prediction:
1.       Phillies
2.       Braves (wild card)
3.       Mets
4.       Nationals
5.       Marlins

NL Central
Raise your hand if you had the Pirates in the NL Central race this year.  The Pirates locked in a four team race for the Central with the Brewers, Cardinals, and Reds.  The Bucs have been a good story, but unfortunately I can’t see them winning the division.  Still, it would be nice to see them finish over .500.  The Cardinals have held on despite no Adam Wainwright and an injured and mostly ineffective (for him) Albert Pujols.  Lance Berkman has been a huge surprise for them.  The Brewers are up there because of Fielder, Braun, and Weeks. The Reds are under .500, but still only 4 games back.  You might as well cancel the rest of the season for the Cubs and Astros.It’s a tough call between the Cardinals and Brewers right now; they are actually very similar teams.  I gave the edge to the Brewers to start the year, so I will stick with them.

Current Standings:
1.       Brewers
2.       Cardinals
3.       Pirates
4.       Reds
5.       Cubs
6.       Astros

My Pre-Season predictions:
1.       Brewers
2.       Reds (wild card)
3.       Cubs (I don’t know what I was thinking)
4.       Cardinals
5.       Astros
6.       Pirates

My mid-season prediction:
1.       Brewers
2.       Cardinals
3.       Reds
4.       Pirates
5.       Cubs
6.       Astros

NL West


The NL West race is usually exciting to the last week of the season, but I don’t think that will be the case this year. Yes, the D’Backs are only 3 games behind the Giants, but I don’t have too much confidence in Arizona for the rest of the season. Name one D’Backs pitcher besides Dan Haren. Exactly. If any team can catch the Giants, it’s the Rockies, who always seem to have a second half run in them. They’re 8.5 games out, but I could see that gap closing by September. As for the Giants, they are basically the Phillies with a worse offense, and it looks like Timmy Lincecum had too much fun in the off-season. Still, they’re the favorites for now. The Dodgers are a mess this year, and the Padres proved last season’s success was a fluke.
Current Standings:
1. Giants
2. D’Backs
3. Rockies
4. Dodgers
5. Padres
 
My Pre-Season Prediction:
1. Giants
2. Rockies
3. Dodgers
4. Padres
5. D’Backs
 
My Mid-Season Prediction:
1. Giants
2. Rockies
3. D’Backs
4. Dodgers
5. Padres
 
AL East
Everyone’s favorite division.  The Red Sox rebounded from a terrible start to be the best team in the AL, and despite injuries and no contribution from Carl Crawford and John Lackey, they’re the AL favorites right now.  The Yankees have been ho-hum, great offense but no depth to their starting pitching, you can still pencil them for at least the wild card.  The Rays would probably be winning either the AL Central or West, but again they’re stuck in a horrible situation.  The Blue Jays have Jose Bautista, so that’s nice at least.  The Orioles continue to be irrelevant.  The only intrigue is who will win the division and who will be the wild card.
 
Current Standings:
1.       Red Sox
2.       Yankees
3.       Rays
4.       Blue Jays
5.       Orioles
 
My Pre-Season Prediction:
1.       Red Sox
2.       Yankees (wild card)
3.       Rays
4.       Orioles
5.       Blue Jays
 
My Mid-Season Prediction
1.       Red Sox
2.       Yankees (wild card)
3.       Rays
4.       Blue Jays
5.       Orioles
 
AL Central
Always the toughest division to predict, and it looks like the AL Central will go down to the wire again this year.  The Indians have been in first for a good part of the season, and only trail the Tigers by a half game now.  As much as I would like to see a real life Major League, I don’t think the Indians will hang around until the end, unless Pedro Cerrano joins the team.  The Tigers are in first, and have the best pitcher in the AL in Justin Verlander, but besides that they don’t really inspire a great deal of confidence.  The White Sox seem like a mess, and although they probably have the most talent in the division, I don’t like their chances in the second half.  Then there are the Twins, who were horrible for the first couple of months but seem to have turned the corner a bit.  If Joe Mauer come back into any kind of form, I am making the bold prediction right now, the Twins will come back from 6.5 games to win the AL Central.  Oh yeah, and the Royals are there too.
 
Current standings:
1.       Tigers
2.       Indians
3.       White Sox
4.       Twins
5.       Royals
 
My Pre-Season Prediction
1.       White Sox
2.       Twins
3.       Tigers
4.       Indians
5.       Royals
 
My Mid-Season Prediction
1.       Twins
2.       Tigers
3.       Indians
4.       White Sox
5.       Royals
 
AL West
It’s already the smallest division in baseball, but it might as well just be the Rangers and Angels.  You get the feeling like the Rangers should be running away with this, but the Angels are just 1 game back at the break.  I think the Rangers will end up having a comfortable lead in September and win the division easily.  Besides Jered Weaver,  I can’t think of one standout Angels player this season, but maybe I just don’t pay enough attention to West Coast baseball.  The Mariners are better this season, but forget about them, and it looks like Moneyball isn’t working anymore for the A’s.
Current Standings:
1.       Rangers
2.       Angels
3.       Mariners
4.       A’s
 
Pre-Season Prediction
1.       Rangers
2.       A’s
3.       Angels
4.       Mariners
 
Mid-Season Prediction
1.       Rangers
2.       Angels
3.       Mariners
4.       A’s
 
So my projected playoff matchups are:
Phillies vs Brewers
Braves vs Giants
Red Sox vs Twins
Rangers vs Yankees
I like the Phillies and Braves in the NL.  The Brewers are basically the Reds of last year, so I don’t see the Phils having a problem with them.  Unless the Giants catch lightning in a bottle again, I think they have the weakest lineup of the teams and they will get exposed this year. 
In the AL, the Rangers will put a scare in the Yankees again, but I think the Yanks will get their revenge this year.  The Red Sox will have little problem with the Twins or whoever wins the Central.
So we’ll have Phillies vs Braves and Red Sox vs Yankees, easily the two best series we could hope for this year.  I know this is not a unique pick, but I made it at the beginning of the year, so I will stick with Phillies vs Red Sox in the World Series.  
 
If you have to ask who I would pick in that series, you underestimate how much of a homer I am.  Phillies in 7.   We have home-field advantage now after all.

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Ranking the Seasons of The Shield

The Shield is my favorite TV show of all-time, and if you watched it, it would probably be your favorite too.  So having just completed another run-through of seasons 1-7, I thought I would put together a "power rankings" of the seasons.  There is no "bad" season of The Shield, but some are better than others.  It's something to do until football season starts.

SPOILER ALERT



7. Season 6
Season 6 was hurt because of the writers strike.  You can tell there was a lot more story lines they wanted to get into, but they had to cut the season short.  Kevin Hiatt, the guy brough in to replace Vic on the Strike Team, should have had a much bigger role, but he ended up being phased out after a few episodes.  And Julien joining the Strike Team should have been a big deal, but there really wasn't much mentioned about it.  Obviously the big moment of the season is Vic finding out Shane killed Lem, but even that was a bit rushed;  I think it could have waited to the season finale.  Instead, the big event of the season finale was Vic finding the blackmail box, which really wasn't all too exciting.  And the Armenian side story was clearly rushed as well.

6. Season 3
Season 3 is kind of the hangover season, because so much happens in Season 2 that the show clearly needed to slow down and let everything digest.  In the show, the Strike Team decides to be good after robbing the Money Train, which leads to a lot of boredom on their part as they play by the rules.  Unfortunately, it also leads to a lot of boredom on our part, as we just want the Strike Team to be doing something illegal again.  It picks up late in the season, but the Strike Team breaking up in the last episode isn't really all that dramatic, as by that point, we all see it coming from a mile away.

5. Season 7
Season 7 is hard to rank.  The final two episodes of the series are brilliant, and the scene in the second to last episode in which Vic admits to all of his crimes is my favorite scene of the show.  But the season as a whole just feels like one really long episode.  There is the Pezeula/Mexican cartel storyline which runs throughout the season, which honestly isn't the most exciting storyline. And with the Vic/Shane storyline on-going, we would rather watch that than the Pezeula thing.  Julien also continues to be reduced to nothing. Dammit, I want more Julien. But the last two episodes, they make the season.

4. Season 4
Some lists I've seen have had Season 4 as the weakest season, saying Glenn Close was unnecessarily added to the show.  She probably wasn't necessary, but the season as a whole is still really good.  Antoine Mitchell is the show's best villian (well, next to Kavanaugh of course), and it's probably the first time in the show when you think that there's no way the Strike Team will get out of their mess unscathed.  Although they do, the events of this season ultimately begin the steady downfall towards the end of the show.  On the down side, this is the first season in which the secondary characters (Danny, Julien, and Aceveda to an extent), take more of a back seat to the Strike Team, Dutch, and Claudette.  Honestly, since Danny and Julien don't have much to do after season 3, I would have had them be the cops killed in season 4, instead of the two random ones.  It definitely would have made for a more meaningful storyline.

3. Season 5
It's tough to put Season 5 at even number 3 on the list, because almost everything about it is so good.  Kavanaugh is one of the best bad guys in TV history, even though he's not really a bad guy.  And of course, Shane killing Lem is the most shocking moment of the show, something that you really can't see coming until maybe right before it happens.  The only reason it's at number 3 and not higher is because, like season 7, it  feels like one really long episode. There's only one important storyline, but it's still a damn good one.

2. Season 1
Let's get this out of the way first: the pilot episode is the greatest pilot in TV history, I don't think there's anything that even comes close.  The entire tone of the show is set at the end of the pilot.  No matter how many "good" things Vic does throughout the series, he still killed a cop in the very first episode, and that carries throughout to the very last show.  There's also a good balance between Strike Team and Aceveda stories, Dutch and Claudette stories, and Danny and Julien stories.  There are a few episodes in which nothing really happens, but they clearly needed some filler.  The season finale doesn't really blow you away either.  Still, amazing for a first season.

1. Season 2
Season 2 is the absolute prime of the show.  Unlike season 1, there aren't many filler episodes, and there are plenty of storylines to keep every episode fresh.  Like season 1, there's a great balance between characters, and it isn't just about the Strike Team.  The Armenian Money Train, much like Vic's murder of Terry, carries throughout the rest of the series, and really if you follow what happens, it's the downfall of everything for the Strike Team.  Money train leads to Lem burning the money, which leads to Shane leaving the team, which leads to him working with Antoine Mitchell, which leads to Lem having to get the heroin for Shane, which leads to Shane killing Lem, which leads to the fued between Shane and Vic, which ultimately blows everything up.  So there you go.  Bottom line: Season 2 of The Shield is better than anything on TV

Thursday, May 26, 2011

A return? Yes. Part 2

Apparently I mixed up my 4th round picks.  I just wanted to make sure to get to Alex Henery.  Anyway:

4. Casey Matthews, LB Oregon
No problem with this pick.  He was a good player in college, probably doesn't have the athleticism to be great in the NFL, but he could develop into a run stopping Jeremiah Trotter type. 
Grade: A-

5. Dion Lewis, RB, Pitt
I thought they might go RB higher, since if Jerome Harrison leaves they won't have a legit backup for Shady McCoy, but this is the Eagles we're talking about.  They don't have use for one running back, much less two.  Still, this is a good pick here.
Grade: A-

5. Julian Vandevelde, G, Iowa
Eh, would have rather seen a backup tackle then another guard here.  He wasn't rated very high and it's hard to get excited about this one.
Grade: C

6. Jason Kelce, C, Cincinnati
Same here.
Grade: C

6. Brian Rolle, LB, Ohio St.
Rolle will never be an every down player, because he is just too small for the position.  But this is the kind of guy who will make a huge difference on special teams.  Works for a 6th round pick.
Grade: B

7. Greg Lloyd Jr, LB, UConn
His dad was a great linebacker for the Steelers, but this was probably one linebacker too many.  Don't see him making the team.
Grade: C

7. Stanley Havili, FB, USC
He's an interesting player.  He's listed as a fullback, but he basically plays like a big running back because he's not much of a blocker.  If he learns out to block, he could be a steal in the 7th. 
Grade: B

Overall
Grading a draft before any of the players have even played is basically an excercise in futility, because nobody knows exactly how these guys will turn out.  What we can grade is the team's draft strategy, and how they picked players based on their projected value.  In that regard, the Eagles didn't do so great this year.  Their first four rounds consisted of several players which could have conceivably been had with a later pick.  However, the Eagles always target the players they want before a draft, and make sure they get them.  If they can't, they trade down.  I like Danny Watkins, but again, you have to question if Gabe Carimi gives you better value there.  In the third round, I think there are higher projected CBs than Curtis Marsh.  Again, these players could turn out to be just fine, but this is all we have to go on right now.  And you still can't defend choosing a kicker in the fourth round to me.  Overall, I don't come out of this draft with a ton of excitement.

Grade: C+

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

A return? Yes. Part 1

In a return as monumental as Michael Jordan coming back wearing number 45, as stunning at The Rock coming back to Wrestlemania 27, the Better than Tom Stinson Lifting Journal is back.  For now.

I couldn't let an NFL Draft go by without at least saying something, so here's part 1 of my Eagles Draft thoughts.  A little late I know, but hey, not like the NFL season is starting anytime soon:

1. Danny Watkins, G, Baylor

I was not very thrilled when Danny Watkins was announced as the Eagles pick. Two of the Eagles projected top targets, Gabe Carimi and Jimmy Smith, were both on the board and it seemed like a no-brainer that one of them would be in midnight green. The Watkins pick is getting bashed for a couple of reasons. First, he’s 26 years old now, and he’ll be 27 during his rookie season. Second, he most likely could have been had later than the 23rd overall pick. I really don’t care about the age thing. If he was a running back or wide receiver, it would be an issue. But many o-lineman play well into their late 30’s. I can see Watkins easily sticking around for 10 years, despite the fact Andy Reid typically does not keep guys over 30. I think he’ll make an exception this time. Watkins was the best guard throughout the off-season workouts, and I think he’ll end up being a great pick up. The only problem I still have is passing on Carimi. RT is a much more important position than RG, and Carimi offered more value at the pick than Watkins did. Still, Watkins will start from day one and be a good lineman for the Birds.


Grade: B

2. Jaiquwan Jarrett, S, Temple


Many people think Jarrett was a reach in the 2nd round. I really don’t see it that way. This was a very weak draft for safeties, and Jarrett was considered by many as the 2nd best safety in the draft behind Rahim Moore. The Eagles needed safety help with Mikell most likely gone and Nate Allen’s season uncertain with a knee injury. If the Eagles passed on Jarrett at 54, he probably would not have lasted much longer considered the safety class this year. I have no problem with this pick.

Grade: A-

3. Curtis Marsh, CB, Utah State


Admittedly, I had never heard of Curtis Marsh before he was selected. He seems like a talented player who will need to be coached up a bit before he’ll make an impact with the Birds. He’s not going to fill the immediate need that still remains at CB. It’s clear the Eagles will go hard after the top corners in free agency, if we ever get free agency. It seems like maybe this was a bit of a reach again, but from what I’ve read, there’s potential.

Grade: B-

4. Alex Henrey, K, Nebraska
 
It feels strange even putting the letter K next to a draft pick. Sorry, you can try to dress this pick up all you want: he was the best kicker in the draft, David Akers is at the end of his career, etc. This is still a lousy pick. There’s no reason to take a kicker before the 6th round of the draft, I don’t care how good he is. The same rule in fantasy football for kickers applies to real football for kickers. Some idiots will take the “good” kickers early, but there’s no reason to waste an early pick on one. Will he be a good kicker? It seems like he will be, but good kickers can be found elsewhere. Did the Eagles take Akers in the 4th round of the draft? No, they just found him, like most kickers. Waste of a pick.


Grade: D

Friday, December 24, 2010

The Year in Sports

Apologies for the lack in updates lately, but I figured I had to at least get in an obligatory year end review entry.

We began the year with the end of the McNabb era in Eagles green.  After the Eagles were destroyed in Dallas twice in a row, the latter knockin them out of the playoffs, the writing was on the wall that Donovan would not be back.  Donovan would be traded Easter night to the Redskins, in a huge "Really?" moment.  However, we've seen that move has turned out great for the Birds and terrible for both McNabb and the Redskins. 

We were then treated with a solid Super Bowl between the Saints and Colts.  It was great seeing the underdog Saints win the game, and one could make the argument that New Orleans' Super Bowl victory is the biggest story of 2010.  It was enough for Drew BREEEEEEES to win the Sportsman of the Year from SI.

Skip ahead a couple of months to March Madness.  As always, one of the best sporting events of the year, and this year was particularly great, at least from a JCKevo point of view.  The final between Duke and Butler was one of the best championship games I've ever seen in any sport, and it came down to Gordon Hayward's last desperate heave which looked good all the way, and was thisclose to giving me a heart attack.  However, Duke prevailed, Coack K was deemed ruler of the world, and order was restored in the universe.

A few unexciting months, with a typical NFL draft, start of the MLB season, Tiger returning to the Masters, the NBA and NHL playoffs (I had to think long and hard about who won the NBA title and Stanley Cup last year).

The Phillies did not look good for much of the summer.  The lineup went through a slump which seemed to last for eternity, the starting pitching was below average behind Roy Halladay, and the playoffs almost seemed out of reach when the Phils were trailing the Braves by 8 games.  But things turned around, the offense was hot into the Fall, Roy Oswalt was acquired and he was dominant, Cole Hamels turned it on, and the Phils were deemed as the odds on favorites going into the playoffs.

Then the slump reared its ugly head again.  The Phils managed to sweep the Reds mostly due to amazing pitching and a bit of luck, but there would be no such luck against the Giants in the NLCS.  The Giants went on to win the World Series, and the Phillies were left wondering what the heck went wrong.  This team was more talented than the 2008 champions, but things just didn't go right.  We were left to wonder what would happen in the off-season.

We also had the World Cup over the Summer, the only month every 4 years in which more than 5% of the country cares about soccer.  We got a decent showing out of the US, although losing to Ghana is still a disappointment, and a good final between Spain and the Netherlands.  Once again, the question was asked if the World Cup would help soccer take off in America, and once again, the answer was no.

Time for football season, and the start of the Kevin Kolb era in Philadelphia.  Unfortunately, the Kevin Kolb era lasted as long as it look me to type this sentence.  Kolb was knocked out in the Eagles first game against the Packers, and Michael Vick entered the game.  I've said a few things about this topic before, so I want to take this opportunity to clear up a few things:

1. I will admit I was wrong about Vick not being able to become a different QB.  He is different than his Atlanta days, and he is better.

2. I will NOT admit I was wrong to not hop on the bandwagon after one half of football.  People gave up on Kolb way too quickly, and that was my main problem with the whole thing.

3. I'm still not crazy about Vick as a person, nor do I think I have to be to root for him as the QB of my favorite football team.  I will leave it at that for now.

4. I do realize I said if Vick led the Eagles to a Super Bowl, I would run down Broad Street wearing nothing but a Vick jersey.  Oh boy.

So the Eagles are 10-4 and seem to be in the driver's seat for the NFC East title. 

However, the Eagles season has almost been overshadowed by the Phillies off-season.  We got the inevitable news first, that Jayson Werth would not be back.  However, I don't think anyone expected Werth to go to the Nationals, and not for the obscene amount of money he received.  Have fun in Washington Jayson.

Then we got the news that came out of no where.  There were some rumblings after the season that the Phillies wanted to get Cliff Lee, but it looked like it would be impossible money wise.  Then we heard about a "mystery team" that was in the Lee race along with the Yankees and Rangers.  And then in a whirlwind couple of hours, we learned the mystery team was the Phillies, that they were a possibility, that they were now the favorite, and that they had officially signed Cliff Lee.  The Phillies now have what many people are calling the best rotation ever: Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, Hamels.  And while other people are trying any way possible to nitpick the deal, how the Phillies will have no money and their window of opportunity is small, I'm looking forward to what might be the most dominant pitching staff ever assembled.

So now we look forward to next year.  Duke is undefeated and #1 in the country, the Eagles are headed to the playoffs, and the Phillies will be the prohibitive favorite heading into the baseball season.  Could we possibly have a trifecta of Kevo championships next season?  2010 was good, 2011 has the potential to be incredible.

Tuesday, December 14, 2010