Mid-Season Baseball review/preview

After a Home Run Derby which sounded like it was actually pretty good but I didn’t watch because I didn’t want any of those guys to win, and an All-Star game which was nothing special (since everyone seems to make the team now anyway) it is now time to look forward to the second half of the season.  

NL East
Well the standings are just about what we expected: Phillies, Braves, then everyone else.  Still there have been a few surprises.  The Phils have the best record in baseball despite what has been primarily an anemic offense (save the two 14 run outburst they’ve had in the past week).  Anyone who has regularly watched this team can tell you they haven’t played their best baseball, but you can’t argue with the results.  The Braves have had the same problems as the Phillies, but still are among the top teams in the league and look like a good bet for the Wild Card at this point.  The Mets and Nationals have been hanging on, and although they’re both only .500, it’s fairly impressive considering how many issues each of those teams has had.  The usually pesky Marlins have completely fallen apart, and they seem to be ready for next season and their new ballpark.
Current Standings:
1.       Phillies
2.       Braves
3.       Mets
4.       Nationals
5.       Marlins

My Pre-Season Prediction:
1.       Phillies
2.       Braves
3.       Marlins
4.       Nationals
5.       Mets

Mid-season Prediction:
1.       Phillies
2.       Braves (wild card)
3.       Mets
4.       Nationals
5.       Marlins

NL Central
Raise your hand if you had the Pirates in the NL Central race this year.  The Pirates locked in a four team race for the Central with the Brewers, Cardinals, and Reds.  The Bucs have been a good story, but unfortunately I can’t see them winning the division.  Still, it would be nice to see them finish over .500.  The Cardinals have held on despite no Adam Wainwright and an injured and mostly ineffective (for him) Albert Pujols.  Lance Berkman has been a huge surprise for them.  The Brewers are up there because of Fielder, Braun, and Weeks. The Reds are under .500, but still only 4 games back.  You might as well cancel the rest of the season for the Cubs and Astros.It’s a tough call between the Cardinals and Brewers right now; they are actually very similar teams.  I gave the edge to the Brewers to start the year, so I will stick with them.

Current Standings:
1.       Brewers
2.       Cardinals
3.       Pirates
4.       Reds
5.       Cubs
6.       Astros

My Pre-Season predictions:
1.       Brewers
2.       Reds (wild card)
3.       Cubs (I don’t know what I was thinking)
4.       Cardinals
5.       Astros
6.       Pirates

My mid-season prediction:
1.       Brewers
2.       Cardinals
3.       Reds
4.       Pirates
5.       Cubs
6.       Astros

NL West


The NL West race is usually exciting to the last week of the season, but I don’t think that will be the case this year. Yes, the D’Backs are only 3 games behind the Giants, but I don’t have too much confidence in Arizona for the rest of the season. Name one D’Backs pitcher besides Dan Haren. Exactly. If any team can catch the Giants, it’s the Rockies, who always seem to have a second half run in them. They’re 8.5 games out, but I could see that gap closing by September. As for the Giants, they are basically the Phillies with a worse offense, and it looks like Timmy Lincecum had too much fun in the off-season. Still, they’re the favorites for now. The Dodgers are a mess this year, and the Padres proved last season’s success was a fluke.
Current Standings:
1. Giants
2. D’Backs
3. Rockies
4. Dodgers
5. Padres
 
My Pre-Season Prediction:
1. Giants
2. Rockies
3. Dodgers
4. Padres
5. D’Backs
 
My Mid-Season Prediction:
1. Giants
2. Rockies
3. D’Backs
4. Dodgers
5. Padres
 
AL East
Everyone’s favorite division.  The Red Sox rebounded from a terrible start to be the best team in the AL, and despite injuries and no contribution from Carl Crawford and John Lackey, they’re the AL favorites right now.  The Yankees have been ho-hum, great offense but no depth to their starting pitching, you can still pencil them for at least the wild card.  The Rays would probably be winning either the AL Central or West, but again they’re stuck in a horrible situation.  The Blue Jays have Jose Bautista, so that’s nice at least.  The Orioles continue to be irrelevant.  The only intrigue is who will win the division and who will be the wild card.
 
Current Standings:
1.       Red Sox
2.       Yankees
3.       Rays
4.       Blue Jays
5.       Orioles
 
My Pre-Season Prediction:
1.       Red Sox
2.       Yankees (wild card)
3.       Rays
4.       Orioles
5.       Blue Jays
 
My Mid-Season Prediction
1.       Red Sox
2.       Yankees (wild card)
3.       Rays
4.       Blue Jays
5.       Orioles
 
AL Central
Always the toughest division to predict, and it looks like the AL Central will go down to the wire again this year.  The Indians have been in first for a good part of the season, and only trail the Tigers by a half game now.  As much as I would like to see a real life Major League, I don’t think the Indians will hang around until the end, unless Pedro Cerrano joins the team.  The Tigers are in first, and have the best pitcher in the AL in Justin Verlander, but besides that they don’t really inspire a great deal of confidence.  The White Sox seem like a mess, and although they probably have the most talent in the division, I don’t like their chances in the second half.  Then there are the Twins, who were horrible for the first couple of months but seem to have turned the corner a bit.  If Joe Mauer come back into any kind of form, I am making the bold prediction right now, the Twins will come back from 6.5 games to win the AL Central.  Oh yeah, and the Royals are there too.
 
Current standings:
1.       Tigers
2.       Indians
3.       White Sox
4.       Twins
5.       Royals
 
My Pre-Season Prediction
1.       White Sox
2.       Twins
3.       Tigers
4.       Indians
5.       Royals
 
My Mid-Season Prediction
1.       Twins
2.       Tigers
3.       Indians
4.       White Sox
5.       Royals
 
AL West
It’s already the smallest division in baseball, but it might as well just be the Rangers and Angels.  You get the feeling like the Rangers should be running away with this, but the Angels are just 1 game back at the break.  I think the Rangers will end up having a comfortable lead in September and win the division easily.  Besides Jered Weaver,  I can’t think of one standout Angels player this season, but maybe I just don’t pay enough attention to West Coast baseball.  The Mariners are better this season, but forget about them, and it looks like Moneyball isn’t working anymore for the A’s.
Current Standings:
1.       Rangers
2.       Angels
3.       Mariners
4.       A’s
 
Pre-Season Prediction
1.       Rangers
2.       A’s
3.       Angels
4.       Mariners
 
Mid-Season Prediction
1.       Rangers
2.       Angels
3.       Mariners
4.       A’s
 
So my projected playoff matchups are:
Phillies vs Brewers
Braves vs Giants
Red Sox vs Twins
Rangers vs Yankees
I like the Phillies and Braves in the NL.  The Brewers are basically the Reds of last year, so I don’t see the Phils having a problem with them.  Unless the Giants catch lightning in a bottle again, I think they have the weakest lineup of the teams and they will get exposed this year. 
In the AL, the Rangers will put a scare in the Yankees again, but I think the Yanks will get their revenge this year.  The Red Sox will have little problem with the Twins or whoever wins the Central.
So we’ll have Phillies vs Braves and Red Sox vs Yankees, easily the two best series we could hope for this year.  I know this is not a unique pick, but I made it at the beginning of the year, so I will stick with Phillies vs Red Sox in the World Series.  
 
If you have to ask who I would pick in that series, you underestimate how much of a homer I am.  Phillies in 7.   We have home-field advantage now after all.