Last week: 11-5
Last week's upset pick: drilled the Raiders over Jets
Last week's survivor pick: Chargers over Chiefs, barely
Overall: an average 32-16
@Chicago over Carolina
Could not care less about this game.
Buffalo over @Cincinnati
Really want to pick the Bengals. No, the Bills are still not for real in my book, come back to me when they don't make the playoffs this year.
Tennessee over @Cleveland
See Chicago vs Carolina
@Dallas over Detroit
Lions = better version of the Bills. Still being incredibly overrated.
Minnesota over @Kansas City
Wow, lots of bad games this week.
@St. Louis over Washington
Again.
@Philadelphia over San Francisco
Eagles will win an ugly game and Vick will not get hurt. I think that's about all I can ask for out of this one.
New Orleans over @Jacksonville
Drew BREEEEEEEEEEEES > entire city of Jacksonville
Pittsburgh over @Houston
Tough, but the Steelers are overdue for a good performance.
UPSET SPECIAL BABY @Arizona over NY Giants
Not a spite pick, not a spite pick, not a spite pick.
Atlanta over @Seattle
The Falcons look like the worst good team ever. After the Eagles of course. The Seahawks are just a bad bad team.
@Green Bay over Denver
Should be Rodgers vs Tebow.
New England over @Oakland
By the final score of 63-56.
@San Diego over Miami
I'd like to personally thank Mike Tolbert for being amazing when I don't put him in my fantasy lineup, and doing nothing when I do. You're benched permanently next to Knowshon Moreno.
@Baltimore over NY Jets
They're pretty much the same team. Except the Ravens are better.
Survivor Pick: @Tampa Bay over Indianapolis
You would think Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football would have made a "with-Peyton" and "without-Peyton" schedule, just in case. Should get great ratings for this gem.
Friday, September 30, 2011
Thursday, September 15, 2011
Week 2 Picks
Will the NFL eventually become an all-passing league? Well maybe not all-passing, but like 80% passing? Football started out as an all-running game, so there's no reason to think it couldn't eventually pull a 180. After seemingly every QB threw for 300 yards last week, it's something to think about.
Last week: 9-7 (give me a break, it was week 1)
Last week's survivor pick: Arizona
@Buffalo over Oakland
After the Bills win this week, we'll see 1039804 articles about how the Bills are this year's sleeper team. They'll win 6 games.
UPSET SPECIAL: Kansas City over @Detroit
I was shocked to see the Lions were 8 point favorites over the Chiefs this week. I realize the Chiefs were bad last week and the Lions were pretty good, but this is a division winner from last year up against a 6-10 team from last year. I don't pick against the spread, but I would be all over this one if I did. I think this is a classic example of a team motivated after getting embarrassed vs. a team feeling a little too good about itself.
Baltimore over @Tennessee
I guess those reports of the Ravens demise were slightly exaggerated. Won't matter until they do it in the playoffs though.
@Indianapolis over Cleveland
Well that's what the Colts look like without Peyton. Imagine if they had drafted Ryan Leaf instead; they would have looked like that for the last 13 years. I think they will be motivated to take down an equally bad Browns team.
Tampa Bay over @Minnesota
Both teams looked terrible last week, so I will take the slightly less terrible one. Sorry Donovan.
@New Orleans over Chicago
The Saints performance last week might have been the best losing effort I've ever seen. And I still don't like the Bears.
@NY Jets over Jacksonville
The Jets were handed a win last week by Tony Romo. I think they can do the winning themselves against the Jaguars.
SURVIVOR PICK: @Pittsburgh over Seattle
I don't like to use a team like the Steelers this early in Survivor, but this was the only option I liked this week other than the Jets over Jaguars, and I don't completely trust the Jets. I think this is the safest survivor pick of all-time (fast-forward to Sunday when I can't believe the Steelers lost).
@Washington over Arizona
I don't like the Redskins more than the Cardinals this year, but I'm always wary of West teams traveling to the East Coast. And if the Cardinals defense made Cam Newton look that good, imagine how Sexy it will make Sexy Rexy look.
Green Bay over @Carolina
I'm guessing Newton won't throw for 422 yards against the Packers. Aaron Rodgers will though.
Dallas over @San Francisco
If you want a good laugh, search for #QuarterbacksBetterThanTonyRomo on Twitter.
@Denver over Cincinnati
Come on, Tim Tebow could have lost to the Raiders just as good as Kyle Orton did. Still, have to think even Brady Quinn could beat the Bengals.
Houston over @Miami
The Texans bandwagon is officially over capacity. If they don't win the South this year, they never will and I will never pick them in a game ever again.
@New England over San Diego
After Cam Newton threw for 422 yards, I heard a lot how even Tom Brady never threw for 400 yards. I guess Tom heard that a lot too. The over/under on this game can't be high enough.
Philadelphia over @Atlanta
I can never bring myself to pick against my team. But this is a rough spot. Moving on.
@NY Giants over St. Louis
I would say this is the worst MNF game of the year, but then again the Jaguars have two MNF games this season. Yes, those Jaguars. Can't wait for those. Someone at ESPN must have really pissed off Roger Goodell.
Last week: 9-7 (give me a break, it was week 1)
Last week's survivor pick: Arizona
@Buffalo over Oakland
After the Bills win this week, we'll see 1039804 articles about how the Bills are this year's sleeper team. They'll win 6 games.
UPSET SPECIAL: Kansas City over @Detroit
I was shocked to see the Lions were 8 point favorites over the Chiefs this week. I realize the Chiefs were bad last week and the Lions were pretty good, but this is a division winner from last year up against a 6-10 team from last year. I don't pick against the spread, but I would be all over this one if I did. I think this is a classic example of a team motivated after getting embarrassed vs. a team feeling a little too good about itself.
Baltimore over @Tennessee
I guess those reports of the Ravens demise were slightly exaggerated. Won't matter until they do it in the playoffs though.
@Indianapolis over Cleveland
Well that's what the Colts look like without Peyton. Imagine if they had drafted Ryan Leaf instead; they would have looked like that for the last 13 years. I think they will be motivated to take down an equally bad Browns team.
Tampa Bay over @Minnesota
Both teams looked terrible last week, so I will take the slightly less terrible one. Sorry Donovan.
@New Orleans over Chicago
The Saints performance last week might have been the best losing effort I've ever seen. And I still don't like the Bears.
@NY Jets over Jacksonville
The Jets were handed a win last week by Tony Romo. I think they can do the winning themselves against the Jaguars.
SURVIVOR PICK: @Pittsburgh over Seattle
I don't like to use a team like the Steelers this early in Survivor, but this was the only option I liked this week other than the Jets over Jaguars, and I don't completely trust the Jets. I think this is the safest survivor pick of all-time (fast-forward to Sunday when I can't believe the Steelers lost).
@Washington over Arizona
I don't like the Redskins more than the Cardinals this year, but I'm always wary of West teams traveling to the East Coast. And if the Cardinals defense made Cam Newton look that good, imagine how Sexy it will make Sexy Rexy look.
Green Bay over @Carolina
I'm guessing Newton won't throw for 422 yards against the Packers. Aaron Rodgers will though.
Dallas over @San Francisco
If you want a good laugh, search for #QuarterbacksBetterThanTonyRomo on Twitter.
@Denver over Cincinnati
Come on, Tim Tebow could have lost to the Raiders just as good as Kyle Orton did. Still, have to think even Brady Quinn could beat the Bengals.
Houston over @Miami
The Texans bandwagon is officially over capacity. If they don't win the South this year, they never will and I will never pick them in a game ever again.
@New England over San Diego
After Cam Newton threw for 422 yards, I heard a lot how even Tom Brady never threw for 400 yards. I guess Tom heard that a lot too. The over/under on this game can't be high enough.
Philadelphia over @Atlanta
I can never bring myself to pick against my team. But this is a rough spot. Moving on.
@NY Giants over St. Louis
I would say this is the worst MNF game of the year, but then again the Jaguars have two MNF games this season. Yes, those Jaguars. Can't wait for those. Someone at ESPN must have really pissed off Roger Goodell.
Thursday, September 8, 2011
NFL 2011
I realize my updates recently have been about as weak as Tom Stinson himself, but I couldn't let the NFL season start without a proper preview. Will I be a homer this year and pick the Eagles to win it all? I guess you have to read on to find out (or just skip to the end).
AFC East
1. New England Patriots
I toyed with the idea of putting the Jets up here, but when it's all said and done, how can you not pick a full strength Patriots squad to win the East? They were 14-2 last year before inexplicably getting bounced by the Jets in the playoffs, but you have to imagine that will only motivate them. They're only going to be better this year with the addition of a (seemingly) re-focused Chad Ochocinco and a (seemingly) re-focused Albert Haynesworth. There are still some question marks on D (where will the pass rush come from?), but overall, they're still the Patriots.
Record: 14-2
2. New York Jets
There's been a lot made of the Jets signing Plaxico Burress, but when you consider they also lost Braylon Edwards, they come out about even in the WR department. Other than that, they made very few notable additions and also lost Brad Smith, Damien Woody, Jerricho Cotchery, and Shaun Ellis. That doesn't mean the Jets won't be good this year. They still have one of the better defenses in the league, and Mark Sanchez, while not incredible last year, should only get better in his third season as starter. They know they can beat the Patriots, but I don't see them getting any further than they did last year.
Record: 11-5 (wild card)
3. Miami Dolphins
A lot of people are down on the Dolphins this year. It's easy to understand why: Chad Henne hasn't shown much at QB, their running attack will come down to a rookie and Reggie Bush, and the defense isn't going to scare anyone. Still, I think there's enough talent here to stay out of the bottom of the barrel. Henne hasn't been good, but he's been far from the worst QB in history like some people seem to think he is. Bush isn't a true RB, but he's still a dangerous weapon to have. And Brandon Marshall is still a top WR even though he is insane. They will probably get scored on a ton, but they'll still steal a game here and there.
Record: 6-10
4. Buffalo Bills
The Bills are a sleeper pick by some, but I'm not seeing it. Compare this team to the Dolphins and I don't see where the big differences are. Ryan Fitzpatrick might be slightly better than Chad Henne, but that's like saying watching paint dry is slightly better than watching grass grow. I would actually give the skill player edge to the Dolphins, since the Bills only WR of note is Stevie Johnson, who is the next in a long line of WRs who is no where near as good as he thinks he is. Like the Dolphins, they'll sneak up on a team once in a while, but that's about it.
Record: 5-11
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
It's hard to find a team that's more balanced from top to bottom. They've always had the running game, but now the passing game should be better than ever with Big Ben and the best corps of WR he's ever had. The Steelers defense, as always, will be the Steelers defense. They still might be somewhat susceptible in the passing game, but they seem to get by with just average cornerbacks. They offensive line might be a problem, but there are few QBs in the league who are better under pressure than Big Ben. Hard to see them not making a deep run again.
Record: 12-4
2. Baltimore Ravens
The more I hear about the Ravens, the less confident I get about them. They didn't do a whole lot to improve in the offseason. Adding Lee Evans was nice, it this was 2006, but he's not the same player he used to be. The same can be said for Anquan Boldin, and add in the loss of Derrick Mason, and Joe Flacco is not going to have a whole lot of weapons. Speaking of Flacco, he's been solid, but he hasn't really made the big leap like a lot of people have expected him to. Luckily, their run game should be better than ever, with Ray Rice and the addition of fullback Vonta Leach, who was a big reason for Arian Foster's success with the Texans last year. The defense will be good as always, but they didn't add too much there either. They'll be good, but it's hard to see them making any real noise this year.
Record: 10-6 (wild card)
3. Cleveland Browns
The Browns were a pesky team last year, scoring a few upsets despite a QB situation which included Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace. Luckily for them, Colt McCoy took over and showed some good signs in his rookie year. McCoy should continue to improve, however he has next to nothing at WR. Quick, name two Browns WRs. Exactly. The offense should be led by the running game and Peyton Hillis, who came out of nowhere to have a big year. However, he has now inherited the Madden Curse. I'm not sure what to say about the defense except they're just kinda eh. That's the kind of season the Browns will have, but they're getting better.
Record: 6-10
4. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are a mess. Carson Palmer "retired" rather than stay another year with the team, and with the way things have been for this franchise I can't really blame him. Andy Dalton, the Ginger Ninja from The College University, will take over. He might be decent eventually but he's hardly ready this year. Cedric Benson might get to 1,000 yards again, but he'll average 3.0 yards a carry doing so. A.J Green, the rookie WR from Georgia, should develop into a great player, but he won't do much this year. The defense lost probably their best player in CB Johnathan Joseph. They were bad last year and will probably only get worse. They're in the running for worst team in the league, but hey, it's the Bengals.
Record: 2-14
AFC South
1. Houston Texans
Stop me if you've heard this before: this is the season the Texans will finally break out. I think I've said it every season since about 2005. But the Texans once again disappointed and finished 6-10 last year. It definitely wasn't the offense's fault. Arian Foster was the best RB in the league last season, dominating both on the ground and in the passing game. There's some injury concern heading into the season, the biggest fantasy football injury of all-time potentially, but it seems like he'll be ok. The Matt Schaub/Andre Johnson combo was great again, and should only be getting better. The return of TE Owen Daniels for a whole season should help too. The Texans went 6-10 last season because of their defense, plain and simple. They did get a lot of help in the offseason though. They added CB Johnathan Joseph and S Daniel Manning and drafted DL J.J Watt. In addition, they hired Wade Philips as their D-Coordinator, and while Wade should never have another head coaching job, he's a great Coordinator. Is this the year the Texans finally break out? Sure.
Record: 10-6
2. Tennessee Titans
Here's a team that could come out of nowhere to make some noise. Now that Chris Johnson is happy, this could be potentially one of the best offenses in the AFC. We know what Johnson can do, and if Kenny Britt can stay out of jail (about a 50/50 chance), he gives the Titans another dangerous weapon at WR. Matt Hasslebeck isn't going to set the world on fire, but I think given enough weapons, he could be just fine at QB until Jake Locker is ready. The defense isn't anything special, but with the AFC South in flux the way it is this year, I wouldn't be surprised if the Titans made a sneaky run at the division title.
Record: 8-8
3. Indianapolis Colts
Obviously there is a big question mark next to this one. For years we've been wondering what would happen to the Colts if Peyton Manning went down. No team seems to rely more on one player than the Colts do on Manning. Manning has never missed a start, but from the glimpses we've seen of backup QBs playing in his place, it is not pretty. There's still some mystery of how long Peyton will be out, but it's looking worse and worse everyday. Consider this though, even if Peyton only misses, say, 3 games, the Colts would be lucky to win one of those games (sorry Kerry). They went 10-6 last year with Peyton, so that would leave them at 8-8 this year. This is a team on the decline even with Peyton in there, and without him, there's no way they come close to making the playoffs again.
Record: 7-9
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
If you've read this blog before (all 3 of you), you know I think the Jaguars are the most boring, nondescript team in the league. Any chance they had of being decent this year went out the window a couple days ago when they decided to cut David Garrard. Now I know Garrard isn't a franchise QB, but he's above-average and was one of the reasons this team was even able to get anywhere close to 8 wins last year. Now they have to go to Luke McCown (?) until 1st round pick Blaine Gabbert is ready, but either way they're not getting anywhere close to the playoffs. Maurice Jones-Drew is a talented RB, but he already has some injuries concerns, and now that he has to shoulder more of the load I don't see him lasting a whole season. On defense, the Jags threw a bunch of money at some above-average players like they seem to do every off-season. In the running for worst team this year.
Record: 4-12
AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers
The Chargers statistically had the number one ranked offense and defense last year. They also outscored their opponents by 119 points. Sounds great, but they only finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs last year. I'm not sure how either, but apparently their special teams was godawful. Phillip Rivers is only getting better, and having Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates back for an entire season will make this an explosive offense. They don't have a lot of big names on defense, but they've always played well as a unit and there's no reason that shouldn't continue this year. Barring some unforeseen fluke again this year, the Chargers will win the West.
Record: 11-5
2. Kansas City Chiefs
Most people look at the Chiefs as the fluke team of 2010. They won the West last year but it doesn't seem like they were really that good. They only went 2-4 in their mediocre division and had only 3 wins away from Arrowhead. Still, there's enough talent on this team to make another run at a division title. Matt Cassel isn't great, but he's effective enough to win games. Dwayne Bowe had a monster year at WR, but he's always been inconsistent, and without a reliable target on the other side it's hard to know what they'll get from him this year. The Chiefs' biggest weapon is undoubtedly Jamaal Charles, who averaged an incredibly 6.4 yards a carry last year. There's a lot made about how the Chiefs should use him more, and I think this is the year they finally do.
The defense might be sneakily good. They have a great secondary, two great LBs in Derrick Johnson and Tamba Hali, and although Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey have underperformed based on their draft position, they've still talented players. I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up having one of the better defenses in the league this year. I don't they'll beat out the Chargers again, but they'll hang around in the wild card race this year.
Record: 9-7
3. Denver Broncos
Ok, I'm just going to use this space to talk about Tim Tebow. I hated the guy in college, mostly because he was overhyped, made some ridiculous speeches, and he played at Florida. Still, you have to respect the guy for seemingly being a good person. It's unbelievable to me the kind of negative reaction this guy gets from the media now. No, he's not a prototypical QB and he has a lot of work to do. Still, when he came in for the Broncos last year, he won some games and had pretty solid stats doing so. He had a better QB rating last year than fellow rookie Sam Bradford, and who's the next big thing going into this season? I don't know why Tebow is not getting a chance. Kyle Orton is an ok QB, but he's not a franchise guy. It seems like Tebow will never get a chance with the Broncos, so hopefully he will somewhere else.
Record: 6-10
4. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders were 8-8 last year and swept the AFC West. No, I'm not sure how it happened either. They won't be 8-8 again this year. Jason Campbell is just Jason Campbell, he's not going to do anything special. Their best player is Darren McFadden, and he'll carry the load again on offense as long as he stays healthy. Besides that, there's not much to talk about on offense. The Raiders are pretty solid on defense, but losing their best player Nnamdi Asomugha (where did he go again?) isn't going to help much. They're the Raiders, I think that wraps it up.
Record: 5-11
NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles
There's been enough said about the Eagles this offseason. Overall, they've improved more than any team on paper. Of course, nothing is won on paper, especially in football. As we've seen this preseason, this is hardly the Dream Team. There are still major issues, starting on the offensive line. They looked like a mess, and they will start the season with a line that has never played together, with guys playing in spots they've never played before. Needless to say, it's an issue. They could end up ok, but right now it's not looking good.
The issues on defense are up the middle of the field. They're starting 4th round rookie Casey Matthews at MLB, who could end up being a solid player but isn't ready to lead the defense yet. While Jamar Cheney looked good last season, the other starter Moises Fokou hasn't done anything spectacular. The safeties are also questionable, with recent addition Jarrad Page starting with Kurt Coleman. We really don't know anything about Page, and Coleman was decent last year but far from a sure thing. Nate Allen is still hurt, and Jaiquawn Jarrett is a rookie.
Of course, there is a lot of good here too. Michael Vick is the most dangerous player in the league when he's on his game. He showed last year that he can win games by himself. However, I still question his consistency and wonder if we'll get the same Vick that we got for the majority of last year. There's $100 million the Eagles are gambling to say he will be. LeSean McCoy looked great last year and should only be better both on the ground and receiving out of the backfield. There are some question marks in the WR corps, with DeSean Jackson's contract situation looming over him, as well as last year's concussions, and Jeremy Maclin's illness keeping him out for the preseason. However, if everything goes right there are few better combos in the NFL. If they get any production out of Ronnie Brown and Steve Smith, it's only an added bonus.
There's plenty of good on D too. The D-Line should be the best in the Reid era. Cullen Jenkins is a big upgrade at DT along with Mike Patterson. And if Jason Babin can repeat last year's performance, him and Trent Cole will be among the best pass rushing duos in the league. The CBs obviously got a huge upgrade with both Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie added to Asante Samuel. What was a questionable spot last year will be a huge strength this year.
So where does this leave this team as a whole? If everything goes right, they'll win the East easily and be the NFC favorite going into the playoffs. But there are things that could go wrong, especially on the offensive line, and if Vick can't match his performance from last year. Still, they vastly improved a team that won the East last year, and there's no reason to think they can't do it again.
Record: 12-4
2. Dallas Cowboys
Last year was a disaster for the Cowboys. Nothing went right, Tony Romo got injured early, and the team seemed to quit on Wade Phillips before Jason Garrett was finally named the head coach. There's just too much talent on this team to repeat their disappointment of last year. Romo was having a great season before he got injured, and he has plenty of weapons including Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten, not to mention getting rid of Roy Williams is probably an improvement. With Marion Barber gone, Felix Jones should finally get a chance to show he should have been starting all along in Dallas.
The defense is more questionable, but they'll still get plenty of pressure on QBs with DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer. The secondary has talent, but they seemed to get burned a lot. Still, if they put it together they'll be a good unit. With all the attention on the Eagles, the Cowboys offseason has finally been quiet, which might just be the best thing that could have happened to them.
Record: 10-6 (wild card)
3. New York Giants
The Giants had one of the worst offseasons in recent memory. I can't even think of all the players they lost either to free agency or injury, but there's a lot of them, including first round pick Prince Amukamara who would have helped this team a lot. Besides that, there hasn't been a lot of change in New York. They should have a good offense despite Eli's frequent interceptions and frequent pansiness. Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham are up there with the best WR duos and Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs will lead a good rushing attack. However, they were hit hard on the o-line in free agency so Eli will be under a lot of pressure, which will surely lead to plenty of Eli spin moves.
The defense was hit hard by injury, especially the linebackers. They'll still get a pash rush like they always do, but with a questionable secondary they have to. They'll still be a decent team who will be in the playoff hunt, but they certainly didn't get any better than they were last year.
Record: 9-7
4. Washington Redskins
There are those who are hopping on the Redskins bandwagon because they have looked good in preseason. The Lions were 4-0 in the preseason in 2008. They went 0-16 in the regular season. Rexy Grossman is their starting QB. That'll sum up the offense. The defense is not much better. I'm done talking about the Redskins.
Record: 4-12
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers
The Packers didn't have a great regular season last year. They were 10-6 in a weak division and barely sneaked into the playoffs. But they got hot at the right time and rode it to a Super Bowl title. They should be better in the regular season this year, as injuries hurt them a lot last season. There's not much different about this team than last year's. Aaron Rodgers is now an elite QB and he has plenty of weapons to throw to. Their running game might be weak again, but they didn't need one last year. The defense will be great, and despite the lost of Cullen Jenkins they are strong from top to bottom. Not much else to say except they should win this division easily this year.
Record: 12-4
2. Chicago Bears
I really don't want to like the Bears. They play a boring, sloppy brand of football. But it worked last year; they won the division and were perhaps a Jay Cutler injury away from making it to the Super Bowl. I just have a feeling that they'll win more games than they should again this year, but they won't be beating out the Packers for the division title. Cutler is erratic, but he seems to get the job done more often than not. Roy Williams was terrible in Dallas, but he's the de facto best receiver in Chicago, and there's a chance he could help out. Adding Marion Barber should help out Matt Forte in the running game. The defense has always been a strong point for the Bears, and there's no reason to think that shouldn't continue this season. They'll be ugly again, but you just know they'll be around in the playoff race.
Record: 9-7
3. Detroit Lions
There's no more room on the Lions bandwagon. I've seen people predict the Lions to win the Super Bowl. The same Lions team that went 6-10 last year. There's no doubt this team has a lot of talent, but people need to relax on them a little bit. Matthew Stafford could be a great QB, but there's really no telling right now. We haven't seen enough of him to make any decisions on him yet. He has one of the best WR in the league in Calvin Johnson, and another good one in Nate Burleson, so Stafford could easily put up big numbers if he stays healthy. I'm still not sold on their running game of Jahvid Best and 98 other random RBs they picked up.
The defensive line gets a lot of attention with Ndamakong Suh and rookie Nick Fairley, and they should be a nightmare for opposing D-lines. However, the rest of the defense leaves a lot to be desired. I honestly don't know who they have at linebacker and in the secondary besides Louis Delmas at safety, so I guess I need to do my Lions homework. I think they'll put up a lot of points this year, but they're going to give up their fair share of points as well. They're getting there, but not quite yet.
Record: 8-8
4. Minnesota Vikings
Poor Donovan. First he gets bench for Rexy in Washington, when we all know he never really had a chance there anyway. Now he is basically an after thought in Minnesota. At least he as Adrian Peterson, easily the best running back he has ever played with. The problem is the Vikings don't have much else on offense. Percy Harvin is a good weapon, but I'm not sure if he's a surefire no.1 wideout. Bernard Berrian isn't anything special anymore at WR, and that's about all they have on offense. Peterson is going to see a lot of 8 man fronts, just like he did last year.
The defense isn't what it used to be either. Jared Allen and Antoine Winfield are great players, and the linebackers are solid, but they will miss Kevin and Pat Williams up front. Donovan might get them one more win than they did last year. Or he might have a repeat of Washington. He deserves better.
Record: 6-10
NFC South
1. Atlanta Falcons
Before the Eagles went crazy in free agency, the Falcons were the talk of the NFC after they traded up to grab Julio Jones in the draft, addressing one of the few weaknesses a 13-3 team had a year ago. They've been quiet since then, but there's no reason to think they can't match their success from last season. Matt Ryan should only get better, and adding Jones to Roddy White makes the potential for the best WR duo in the league. Michael Turner has had a ton of carries in the last 3 years, but he's still a top RB.
The defense added DE Ray Edwards to what is already a strong group. There are very few weaknesses on this team, with only the offensive line as the only potential issue. They disappointed in the playoffs last year, but they'll be back again.
Record: 12-4
2. New Orleans Saints
The Saints were good last year, but they had to be disappointed by not winning the South and going on to lose in the first round to a 7-9 Seattle team. There's no reason to think they won't have an explosive offense again this year with Drew Brees and several WRs which can score at any time. The running game should be improved as well with Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles. Brees did get hit a lot last year behind a suspect offensive line, and they didn't do too much to improve that in the offseason.
The defense was just ok last year, and besides adding Shaun Rogers at DT it's pretty much the same unit. They make a lot of plays and big turnovers, but they also give up a lot of big plays, as evidenced in their playoff loss last year. The Saints will be good again, but like last year, I don't see them as a more complete team than the Falcons. The offense alone will give them a wild card spot.
Record: 10-6 (wild card)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs were a huge surprise last year, going 10-6 in a tough division despite starting a lot of young, unheralded players. Josh Freeman was great at QB, throwing 25 TDs to only 6 INTs. He should be even better with another year of experience. LeGarrette Blount went from guy who punched another guy, to undrafted free agent, to running for 1,000 yards despite only starting 9 games last year. If he keeps his head on straight he should do it again this season. Mike Williams was another surprise at WR, catching 11 TDs despite being a 4th round rookie. Kellen Winslow rounds out a young, talented offense.
The defense isn't at the offense's level. They generated no pass rush last year, and despite bringing in some talented rookies, it most likely won't be better immediately. Aqib Talib is a talented corner, he will most likely be in jail before the season ends. Besides last year's first round pick Gerald McCoy, who was just ok last year, there's not much to get excited about on the defensive side of the ball.
I wouldn't say the Bucs were a fluke last year, but they still won a lot of close games (they only had a +22 point differential) and in a tough division it's easy to believe they'll take a step back this year.
Record: 8-8
4. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers had a historically bad season last year. They only scored 17 TDs. The next fewest total was 26 by the Dolphins. Top to bottom they were just a mess last year. I don't think they're quite as bad as 2-14 though. Cam Newton is not ready to play, but he will anyway. He most likely won't throw that well, but he should scramble around a lot and at least make some plays, circa McNabb in his rookie year. They still have a talented RB tandem in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, and if they stay healthy the Panthers should have a good running attack.
There are some good players on defense too, including Charles Johnson, Jon Beason, Thomas Davis, and Chris Gamble. I don't think this team turns it around and makes the playoffs or anything, but if they were in an easier division I think they would win a few more games. Still, they're at the bottom of the South
Record: 5-11
NFC West (The NFC West bores me so I don't want to spend a lot of time on it)
1. Arizona 9-7
2. St Louis 8-8
3. Seattle 7-9
4. San Francisco 6-10
Playoff Teams
AFC
1. New England
2. Pittsburgh
3. San Diego
4. Houston
5. NY Jets
6. Baltimore
NFC
1. Green Bay
2. Philadelphia
3. Atlanta
4. Arizona
5. New Orleans
6. Dallas
Playoffs
San Diego over Baltimore NY Jets over Houston Atlanta over Dallas New Orleans over Arizona
New England over NY Jets Pittsburgh over San Diego Green Bay over New Orleans Philadelphia over Atlanta
New England over Pittsburgh Green Bay over Philadelphia (in Lambeau, in January, not good)
Super Bowl XLVI
New England over Green Bay
AFC East
1. New England Patriots
I toyed with the idea of putting the Jets up here, but when it's all said and done, how can you not pick a full strength Patriots squad to win the East? They were 14-2 last year before inexplicably getting bounced by the Jets in the playoffs, but you have to imagine that will only motivate them. They're only going to be better this year with the addition of a (seemingly) re-focused Chad Ochocinco and a (seemingly) re-focused Albert Haynesworth. There are still some question marks on D (where will the pass rush come from?), but overall, they're still the Patriots.
Record: 14-2
2. New York Jets
There's been a lot made of the Jets signing Plaxico Burress, but when you consider they also lost Braylon Edwards, they come out about even in the WR department. Other than that, they made very few notable additions and also lost Brad Smith, Damien Woody, Jerricho Cotchery, and Shaun Ellis. That doesn't mean the Jets won't be good this year. They still have one of the better defenses in the league, and Mark Sanchez, while not incredible last year, should only get better in his third season as starter. They know they can beat the Patriots, but I don't see them getting any further than they did last year.
Record: 11-5 (wild card)
3. Miami Dolphins
A lot of people are down on the Dolphins this year. It's easy to understand why: Chad Henne hasn't shown much at QB, their running attack will come down to a rookie and Reggie Bush, and the defense isn't going to scare anyone. Still, I think there's enough talent here to stay out of the bottom of the barrel. Henne hasn't been good, but he's been far from the worst QB in history like some people seem to think he is. Bush isn't a true RB, but he's still a dangerous weapon to have. And Brandon Marshall is still a top WR even though he is insane. They will probably get scored on a ton, but they'll still steal a game here and there.
Record: 6-10
4. Buffalo Bills
The Bills are a sleeper pick by some, but I'm not seeing it. Compare this team to the Dolphins and I don't see where the big differences are. Ryan Fitzpatrick might be slightly better than Chad Henne, but that's like saying watching paint dry is slightly better than watching grass grow. I would actually give the skill player edge to the Dolphins, since the Bills only WR of note is Stevie Johnson, who is the next in a long line of WRs who is no where near as good as he thinks he is. Like the Dolphins, they'll sneak up on a team once in a while, but that's about it.
Record: 5-11
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
It's hard to find a team that's more balanced from top to bottom. They've always had the running game, but now the passing game should be better than ever with Big Ben and the best corps of WR he's ever had. The Steelers defense, as always, will be the Steelers defense. They still might be somewhat susceptible in the passing game, but they seem to get by with just average cornerbacks. They offensive line might be a problem, but there are few QBs in the league who are better under pressure than Big Ben. Hard to see them not making a deep run again.
Record: 12-4
2. Baltimore Ravens
The more I hear about the Ravens, the less confident I get about them. They didn't do a whole lot to improve in the offseason. Adding Lee Evans was nice, it this was 2006, but he's not the same player he used to be. The same can be said for Anquan Boldin, and add in the loss of Derrick Mason, and Joe Flacco is not going to have a whole lot of weapons. Speaking of Flacco, he's been solid, but he hasn't really made the big leap like a lot of people have expected him to. Luckily, their run game should be better than ever, with Ray Rice and the addition of fullback Vonta Leach, who was a big reason for Arian Foster's success with the Texans last year. The defense will be good as always, but they didn't add too much there either. They'll be good, but it's hard to see them making any real noise this year.
Record: 10-6 (wild card)
3. Cleveland Browns
The Browns were a pesky team last year, scoring a few upsets despite a QB situation which included Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace. Luckily for them, Colt McCoy took over and showed some good signs in his rookie year. McCoy should continue to improve, however he has next to nothing at WR. Quick, name two Browns WRs. Exactly. The offense should be led by the running game and Peyton Hillis, who came out of nowhere to have a big year. However, he has now inherited the Madden Curse. I'm not sure what to say about the defense except they're just kinda eh. That's the kind of season the Browns will have, but they're getting better.
Record: 6-10
4. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are a mess. Carson Palmer "retired" rather than stay another year with the team, and with the way things have been for this franchise I can't really blame him. Andy Dalton, the Ginger Ninja from The College University, will take over. He might be decent eventually but he's hardly ready this year. Cedric Benson might get to 1,000 yards again, but he'll average 3.0 yards a carry doing so. A.J Green, the rookie WR from Georgia, should develop into a great player, but he won't do much this year. The defense lost probably their best player in CB Johnathan Joseph. They were bad last year and will probably only get worse. They're in the running for worst team in the league, but hey, it's the Bengals.
Record: 2-14
AFC South
1. Houston Texans
Stop me if you've heard this before: this is the season the Texans will finally break out. I think I've said it every season since about 2005. But the Texans once again disappointed and finished 6-10 last year. It definitely wasn't the offense's fault. Arian Foster was the best RB in the league last season, dominating both on the ground and in the passing game. There's some injury concern heading into the season, the biggest fantasy football injury of all-time potentially, but it seems like he'll be ok. The Matt Schaub/Andre Johnson combo was great again, and should only be getting better. The return of TE Owen Daniels for a whole season should help too. The Texans went 6-10 last season because of their defense, plain and simple. They did get a lot of help in the offseason though. They added CB Johnathan Joseph and S Daniel Manning and drafted DL J.J Watt. In addition, they hired Wade Philips as their D-Coordinator, and while Wade should never have another head coaching job, he's a great Coordinator. Is this the year the Texans finally break out? Sure.
Record: 10-6
2. Tennessee Titans
Here's a team that could come out of nowhere to make some noise. Now that Chris Johnson is happy, this could be potentially one of the best offenses in the AFC. We know what Johnson can do, and if Kenny Britt can stay out of jail (about a 50/50 chance), he gives the Titans another dangerous weapon at WR. Matt Hasslebeck isn't going to set the world on fire, but I think given enough weapons, he could be just fine at QB until Jake Locker is ready. The defense isn't anything special, but with the AFC South in flux the way it is this year, I wouldn't be surprised if the Titans made a sneaky run at the division title.
Record: 8-8
3. Indianapolis Colts
Obviously there is a big question mark next to this one. For years we've been wondering what would happen to the Colts if Peyton Manning went down. No team seems to rely more on one player than the Colts do on Manning. Manning has never missed a start, but from the glimpses we've seen of backup QBs playing in his place, it is not pretty. There's still some mystery of how long Peyton will be out, but it's looking worse and worse everyday. Consider this though, even if Peyton only misses, say, 3 games, the Colts would be lucky to win one of those games (sorry Kerry). They went 10-6 last year with Peyton, so that would leave them at 8-8 this year. This is a team on the decline even with Peyton in there, and without him, there's no way they come close to making the playoffs again.
Record: 7-9
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
If you've read this blog before (all 3 of you), you know I think the Jaguars are the most boring, nondescript team in the league. Any chance they had of being decent this year went out the window a couple days ago when they decided to cut David Garrard. Now I know Garrard isn't a franchise QB, but he's above-average and was one of the reasons this team was even able to get anywhere close to 8 wins last year. Now they have to go to Luke McCown (?) until 1st round pick Blaine Gabbert is ready, but either way they're not getting anywhere close to the playoffs. Maurice Jones-Drew is a talented RB, but he already has some injuries concerns, and now that he has to shoulder more of the load I don't see him lasting a whole season. On defense, the Jags threw a bunch of money at some above-average players like they seem to do every off-season. In the running for worst team this year.
Record: 4-12
AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers
The Chargers statistically had the number one ranked offense and defense last year. They also outscored their opponents by 119 points. Sounds great, but they only finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs last year. I'm not sure how either, but apparently their special teams was godawful. Phillip Rivers is only getting better, and having Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates back for an entire season will make this an explosive offense. They don't have a lot of big names on defense, but they've always played well as a unit and there's no reason that shouldn't continue this year. Barring some unforeseen fluke again this year, the Chargers will win the West.
Record: 11-5
2. Kansas City Chiefs
Most people look at the Chiefs as the fluke team of 2010. They won the West last year but it doesn't seem like they were really that good. They only went 2-4 in their mediocre division and had only 3 wins away from Arrowhead. Still, there's enough talent on this team to make another run at a division title. Matt Cassel isn't great, but he's effective enough to win games. Dwayne Bowe had a monster year at WR, but he's always been inconsistent, and without a reliable target on the other side it's hard to know what they'll get from him this year. The Chiefs' biggest weapon is undoubtedly Jamaal Charles, who averaged an incredibly 6.4 yards a carry last year. There's a lot made about how the Chiefs should use him more, and I think this is the year they finally do.
The defense might be sneakily good. They have a great secondary, two great LBs in Derrick Johnson and Tamba Hali, and although Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey have underperformed based on their draft position, they've still talented players. I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up having one of the better defenses in the league this year. I don't they'll beat out the Chargers again, but they'll hang around in the wild card race this year.
Record: 9-7
3. Denver Broncos
Ok, I'm just going to use this space to talk about Tim Tebow. I hated the guy in college, mostly because he was overhyped, made some ridiculous speeches, and he played at Florida. Still, you have to respect the guy for seemingly being a good person. It's unbelievable to me the kind of negative reaction this guy gets from the media now. No, he's not a prototypical QB and he has a lot of work to do. Still, when he came in for the Broncos last year, he won some games and had pretty solid stats doing so. He had a better QB rating last year than fellow rookie Sam Bradford, and who's the next big thing going into this season? I don't know why Tebow is not getting a chance. Kyle Orton is an ok QB, but he's not a franchise guy. It seems like Tebow will never get a chance with the Broncos, so hopefully he will somewhere else.
Record: 6-10
4. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders were 8-8 last year and swept the AFC West. No, I'm not sure how it happened either. They won't be 8-8 again this year. Jason Campbell is just Jason Campbell, he's not going to do anything special. Their best player is Darren McFadden, and he'll carry the load again on offense as long as he stays healthy. Besides that, there's not much to talk about on offense. The Raiders are pretty solid on defense, but losing their best player Nnamdi Asomugha (where did he go again?) isn't going to help much. They're the Raiders, I think that wraps it up.
Record: 5-11
NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles
There's been enough said about the Eagles this offseason. Overall, they've improved more than any team on paper. Of course, nothing is won on paper, especially in football. As we've seen this preseason, this is hardly the Dream Team. There are still major issues, starting on the offensive line. They looked like a mess, and they will start the season with a line that has never played together, with guys playing in spots they've never played before. Needless to say, it's an issue. They could end up ok, but right now it's not looking good.
The issues on defense are up the middle of the field. They're starting 4th round rookie Casey Matthews at MLB, who could end up being a solid player but isn't ready to lead the defense yet. While Jamar Cheney looked good last season, the other starter Moises Fokou hasn't done anything spectacular. The safeties are also questionable, with recent addition Jarrad Page starting with Kurt Coleman. We really don't know anything about Page, and Coleman was decent last year but far from a sure thing. Nate Allen is still hurt, and Jaiquawn Jarrett is a rookie.
Of course, there is a lot of good here too. Michael Vick is the most dangerous player in the league when he's on his game. He showed last year that he can win games by himself. However, I still question his consistency and wonder if we'll get the same Vick that we got for the majority of last year. There's $100 million the Eagles are gambling to say he will be. LeSean McCoy looked great last year and should only be better both on the ground and receiving out of the backfield. There are some question marks in the WR corps, with DeSean Jackson's contract situation looming over him, as well as last year's concussions, and Jeremy Maclin's illness keeping him out for the preseason. However, if everything goes right there are few better combos in the NFL. If they get any production out of Ronnie Brown and Steve Smith, it's only an added bonus.
There's plenty of good on D too. The D-Line should be the best in the Reid era. Cullen Jenkins is a big upgrade at DT along with Mike Patterson. And if Jason Babin can repeat last year's performance, him and Trent Cole will be among the best pass rushing duos in the league. The CBs obviously got a huge upgrade with both Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie added to Asante Samuel. What was a questionable spot last year will be a huge strength this year.
So where does this leave this team as a whole? If everything goes right, they'll win the East easily and be the NFC favorite going into the playoffs. But there are things that could go wrong, especially on the offensive line, and if Vick can't match his performance from last year. Still, they vastly improved a team that won the East last year, and there's no reason to think they can't do it again.
Record: 12-4
2. Dallas Cowboys
Last year was a disaster for the Cowboys. Nothing went right, Tony Romo got injured early, and the team seemed to quit on Wade Phillips before Jason Garrett was finally named the head coach. There's just too much talent on this team to repeat their disappointment of last year. Romo was having a great season before he got injured, and he has plenty of weapons including Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten, not to mention getting rid of Roy Williams is probably an improvement. With Marion Barber gone, Felix Jones should finally get a chance to show he should have been starting all along in Dallas.
The defense is more questionable, but they'll still get plenty of pressure on QBs with DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer. The secondary has talent, but they seemed to get burned a lot. Still, if they put it together they'll be a good unit. With all the attention on the Eagles, the Cowboys offseason has finally been quiet, which might just be the best thing that could have happened to them.
Record: 10-6 (wild card)
3. New York Giants
The Giants had one of the worst offseasons in recent memory. I can't even think of all the players they lost either to free agency or injury, but there's a lot of them, including first round pick Prince Amukamara who would have helped this team a lot. Besides that, there hasn't been a lot of change in New York. They should have a good offense despite Eli's frequent interceptions and frequent pansiness. Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham are up there with the best WR duos and Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs will lead a good rushing attack. However, they were hit hard on the o-line in free agency so Eli will be under a lot of pressure, which will surely lead to plenty of Eli spin moves.
The defense was hit hard by injury, especially the linebackers. They'll still get a pash rush like they always do, but with a questionable secondary they have to. They'll still be a decent team who will be in the playoff hunt, but they certainly didn't get any better than they were last year.
Record: 9-7
4. Washington Redskins
There are those who are hopping on the Redskins bandwagon because they have looked good in preseason. The Lions were 4-0 in the preseason in 2008. They went 0-16 in the regular season. Rexy Grossman is their starting QB. That'll sum up the offense. The defense is not much better. I'm done talking about the Redskins.
Record: 4-12
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers
The Packers didn't have a great regular season last year. They were 10-6 in a weak division and barely sneaked into the playoffs. But they got hot at the right time and rode it to a Super Bowl title. They should be better in the regular season this year, as injuries hurt them a lot last season. There's not much different about this team than last year's. Aaron Rodgers is now an elite QB and he has plenty of weapons to throw to. Their running game might be weak again, but they didn't need one last year. The defense will be great, and despite the lost of Cullen Jenkins they are strong from top to bottom. Not much else to say except they should win this division easily this year.
Record: 12-4
2. Chicago Bears
I really don't want to like the Bears. They play a boring, sloppy brand of football. But it worked last year; they won the division and were perhaps a Jay Cutler injury away from making it to the Super Bowl. I just have a feeling that they'll win more games than they should again this year, but they won't be beating out the Packers for the division title. Cutler is erratic, but he seems to get the job done more often than not. Roy Williams was terrible in Dallas, but he's the de facto best receiver in Chicago, and there's a chance he could help out. Adding Marion Barber should help out Matt Forte in the running game. The defense has always been a strong point for the Bears, and there's no reason to think that shouldn't continue this season. They'll be ugly again, but you just know they'll be around in the playoff race.
Record: 9-7
3. Detroit Lions
There's no more room on the Lions bandwagon. I've seen people predict the Lions to win the Super Bowl. The same Lions team that went 6-10 last year. There's no doubt this team has a lot of talent, but people need to relax on them a little bit. Matthew Stafford could be a great QB, but there's really no telling right now. We haven't seen enough of him to make any decisions on him yet. He has one of the best WR in the league in Calvin Johnson, and another good one in Nate Burleson, so Stafford could easily put up big numbers if he stays healthy. I'm still not sold on their running game of Jahvid Best and 98 other random RBs they picked up.
The defensive line gets a lot of attention with Ndamakong Suh and rookie Nick Fairley, and they should be a nightmare for opposing D-lines. However, the rest of the defense leaves a lot to be desired. I honestly don't know who they have at linebacker and in the secondary besides Louis Delmas at safety, so I guess I need to do my Lions homework. I think they'll put up a lot of points this year, but they're going to give up their fair share of points as well. They're getting there, but not quite yet.
Record: 8-8
4. Minnesota Vikings
Poor Donovan. First he gets bench for Rexy in Washington, when we all know he never really had a chance there anyway. Now he is basically an after thought in Minnesota. At least he as Adrian Peterson, easily the best running back he has ever played with. The problem is the Vikings don't have much else on offense. Percy Harvin is a good weapon, but I'm not sure if he's a surefire no.1 wideout. Bernard Berrian isn't anything special anymore at WR, and that's about all they have on offense. Peterson is going to see a lot of 8 man fronts, just like he did last year.
The defense isn't what it used to be either. Jared Allen and Antoine Winfield are great players, and the linebackers are solid, but they will miss Kevin and Pat Williams up front. Donovan might get them one more win than they did last year. Or he might have a repeat of Washington. He deserves better.
Record: 6-10
NFC South
1. Atlanta Falcons
Before the Eagles went crazy in free agency, the Falcons were the talk of the NFC after they traded up to grab Julio Jones in the draft, addressing one of the few weaknesses a 13-3 team had a year ago. They've been quiet since then, but there's no reason to think they can't match their success from last season. Matt Ryan should only get better, and adding Jones to Roddy White makes the potential for the best WR duo in the league. Michael Turner has had a ton of carries in the last 3 years, but he's still a top RB.
The defense added DE Ray Edwards to what is already a strong group. There are very few weaknesses on this team, with only the offensive line as the only potential issue. They disappointed in the playoffs last year, but they'll be back again.
Record: 12-4
2. New Orleans Saints
The Saints were good last year, but they had to be disappointed by not winning the South and going on to lose in the first round to a 7-9 Seattle team. There's no reason to think they won't have an explosive offense again this year with Drew Brees and several WRs which can score at any time. The running game should be improved as well with Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles. Brees did get hit a lot last year behind a suspect offensive line, and they didn't do too much to improve that in the offseason.
The defense was just ok last year, and besides adding Shaun Rogers at DT it's pretty much the same unit. They make a lot of plays and big turnovers, but they also give up a lot of big plays, as evidenced in their playoff loss last year. The Saints will be good again, but like last year, I don't see them as a more complete team than the Falcons. The offense alone will give them a wild card spot.
Record: 10-6 (wild card)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs were a huge surprise last year, going 10-6 in a tough division despite starting a lot of young, unheralded players. Josh Freeman was great at QB, throwing 25 TDs to only 6 INTs. He should be even better with another year of experience. LeGarrette Blount went from guy who punched another guy, to undrafted free agent, to running for 1,000 yards despite only starting 9 games last year. If he keeps his head on straight he should do it again this season. Mike Williams was another surprise at WR, catching 11 TDs despite being a 4th round rookie. Kellen Winslow rounds out a young, talented offense.
The defense isn't at the offense's level. They generated no pass rush last year, and despite bringing in some talented rookies, it most likely won't be better immediately. Aqib Talib is a talented corner, he will most likely be in jail before the season ends. Besides last year's first round pick Gerald McCoy, who was just ok last year, there's not much to get excited about on the defensive side of the ball.
I wouldn't say the Bucs were a fluke last year, but they still won a lot of close games (they only had a +22 point differential) and in a tough division it's easy to believe they'll take a step back this year.
Record: 8-8
4. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers had a historically bad season last year. They only scored 17 TDs. The next fewest total was 26 by the Dolphins. Top to bottom they were just a mess last year. I don't think they're quite as bad as 2-14 though. Cam Newton is not ready to play, but he will anyway. He most likely won't throw that well, but he should scramble around a lot and at least make some plays, circa McNabb in his rookie year. They still have a talented RB tandem in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, and if they stay healthy the Panthers should have a good running attack.
There are some good players on defense too, including Charles Johnson, Jon Beason, Thomas Davis, and Chris Gamble. I don't think this team turns it around and makes the playoffs or anything, but if they were in an easier division I think they would win a few more games. Still, they're at the bottom of the South
Record: 5-11
NFC West (The NFC West bores me so I don't want to spend a lot of time on it)
1. Arizona 9-7
2. St Louis 8-8
3. Seattle 7-9
4. San Francisco 6-10
Playoff Teams
AFC
1. New England
2. Pittsburgh
3. San Diego
4. Houston
5. NY Jets
6. Baltimore
NFC
1. Green Bay
2. Philadelphia
3. Atlanta
4. Arizona
5. New Orleans
6. Dallas
Playoffs
San Diego over Baltimore NY Jets over Houston Atlanta over Dallas New Orleans over Arizona
New England over NY Jets Pittsburgh over San Diego Green Bay over New Orleans Philadelphia over Atlanta
New England over Pittsburgh Green Bay over Philadelphia (in Lambeau, in January, not good)
Super Bowl XLVI
New England over Green Bay
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Mid-Season Baseball review/preview
After a Home Run Derby which sounded like it was actually pretty good but I didn’t watch because I didn’t want any of those guys to win, and an All-Star game which was nothing special (since everyone seems to make the team now anyway) it is now time to look forward to the second half of the season.
NL East
Well the standings are just about what we expected: Phillies, Braves, then everyone else. Still there have been a few surprises. The Phils have the best record in baseball despite what has been primarily an anemic offense (save the two 14 run outburst they’ve had in the past week). Anyone who has regularly watched this team can tell you they haven’t played their best baseball, but you can’t argue with the results. The Braves have had the same problems as the Phillies, but still are among the top teams in the league and look like a good bet for the Wild Card at this point. The Mets and Nationals have been hanging on, and although they’re both only .500, it’s fairly impressive considering how many issues each of those teams has had. The usually pesky Marlins have completely fallen apart, and they seem to be ready for next season and their new ballpark.
Current Standings:
1. Phillies
2. Braves
3. Mets
4. Nationals
5. Marlins
My Pre-Season Prediction:
1. Phillies
2. Braves
3. Marlins
4. Nationals
5. Mets
Mid-season Prediction:
1. Phillies
2. Braves (wild card)
3. Mets
4. Nationals
5. Marlins
NL Central
Raise your hand if you had the Pirates in the NL Central race this year. The Pirates locked in a four team race for the Central with the Brewers, Cardinals, and Reds. The Bucs have been a good story, but unfortunately I can’t see them winning the division. Still, it would be nice to see them finish over .500. The Cardinals have held on despite no Adam Wainwright and an injured and mostly ineffective (for him) Albert Pujols. Lance Berkman has been a huge surprise for them. The Brewers are up there because of Fielder, Braun, and Weeks. The Reds are under .500, but still only 4 games back. You might as well cancel the rest of the season for the Cubs and Astros.It’s a tough call between the Cardinals and Brewers right now; they are actually very similar teams. I gave the edge to the Brewers to start the year, so I will stick with them.
Current Standings:
1. Brewers
2. Cardinals
3. Pirates
4. Reds
5. Cubs
6. Astros
My Pre-Season predictions:
1. Brewers
2. Reds (wild card)
3. Cubs (I don’t know what I was thinking)
4. Cardinals
5. Astros
6. Pirates
My mid-season prediction:
1. Brewers
2. Cardinals
3. Reds
4. Pirates
5. Cubs
6. Astros
NL West
The NL West race is usually exciting to the last week of the season, but I don’t think that will be the case this year. Yes, the D’Backs are only 3 games behind the Giants, but I don’t have too much confidence in Arizona for the rest of the season. Name one D’Backs pitcher besides Dan Haren. Exactly. If any team can catch the Giants, it’s the Rockies, who always seem to have a second half run in them. They’re 8.5 games out, but I could see that gap closing by September. As for the Giants, they are basically the Phillies with a worse offense, and it looks like Timmy Lincecum had too much fun in the off-season. Still, they’re the favorites for now. The Dodgers are a mess this year, and the Padres proved last season’s success was a fluke.
Current Standings:
1. Giants
2. D’Backs
3. Rockies
4. Dodgers
5. Padres
My Pre-Season Prediction:
1. Giants
2. Rockies
3. Dodgers
4. Padres
5. D’Backs
My Mid-Season Prediction:
1. Giants
2. Rockies
3. D’Backs
4. Dodgers
5. Padres
AL East
Everyone’s favorite division. The Red Sox rebounded from a terrible start to be the best team in the AL, and despite injuries and no contribution from Carl Crawford and John Lackey, they’re the AL favorites right now. The Yankees have been ho-hum, great offense but no depth to their starting pitching, you can still pencil them for at least the wild card. The Rays would probably be winning either the AL Central or West, but again they’re stuck in a horrible situation. The Blue Jays have Jose Bautista, so that’s nice at least. The Orioles continue to be irrelevant. The only intrigue is who will win the division and who will be the wild card.
Current Standings:
1. Red Sox
2. Yankees
3. Rays
4. Blue Jays
5. Orioles
My Pre-Season Prediction:
1. Red Sox
2. Yankees (wild card)
3. Rays
4. Orioles
5. Blue Jays
My Mid-Season Prediction
1. Red Sox
2. Yankees (wild card)
3. Rays
4. Blue Jays
5. Orioles
AL Central
Always the toughest division to predict, and it looks like the AL Central will go down to the wire again this year. The Indians have been in first for a good part of the season, and only trail the Tigers by a half game now. As much as I would like to see a real life Major League, I don’t think the Indians will hang around until the end, unless Pedro Cerrano joins the team. The Tigers are in first, and have the best pitcher in the AL in Justin Verlander, but besides that they don’t really inspire a great deal of confidence. The White Sox seem like a mess, and although they probably have the most talent in the division, I don’t like their chances in the second half. Then there are the Twins, who were horrible for the first couple of months but seem to have turned the corner a bit. If Joe Mauer come back into any kind of form, I am making the bold prediction right now, the Twins will come back from 6.5 games to win the AL Central. Oh yeah, and the Royals are there too.
Current standings:
1. Tigers
2. Indians
3. White Sox
4. Twins
5. Royals
My Pre-Season Prediction
1. White Sox
2. Twins
3. Tigers
4. Indians
5. Royals
My Mid-Season Prediction
1. Twins
2. Tigers
3. Indians
4. White Sox
5. Royals
AL West
It’s already the smallest division in baseball, but it might as well just be the Rangers and Angels. You get the feeling like the Rangers should be running away with this, but the Angels are just 1 game back at the break. I think the Rangers will end up having a comfortable lead in September and win the division easily. Besides Jered Weaver, I can’t think of one standout Angels player this season, but maybe I just don’t pay enough attention to West Coast baseball. The Mariners are better this season, but forget about them, and it looks like Moneyball isn’t working anymore for the A’s.
Current Standings:
1. Rangers
2. Angels
3. Mariners
4. A’s
Pre-Season Prediction
1. Rangers
2. A’s
3. Angels
4. Mariners
Mid-Season Prediction
1. Rangers
2. Angels
3. Mariners
4. A’s
So my projected playoff matchups are:
Phillies vs Brewers
Braves vs Giants
Red Sox vs Twins
Rangers vs Yankees
I like the Phillies and Braves in the NL. The Brewers are basically the Reds of last year, so I don’t see the Phils having a problem with them. Unless the Giants catch lightning in a bottle again, I think they have the weakest lineup of the teams and they will get exposed this year.
In the AL, the Rangers will put a scare in the Yankees again, but I think the Yanks will get their revenge this year. The Red Sox will have little problem with the Twins or whoever wins the Central.
So we’ll have Phillies vs Braves and Red Sox vs Yankees, easily the two best series we could hope for this year. I know this is not a unique pick, but I made it at the beginning of the year, so I will stick with Phillies vs Red Sox in the World Series.
If you have to ask who I would pick in that series, you underestimate how much of a homer I am. Phillies in 7. We have home-field advantage now after all.
NL East
Well the standings are just about what we expected: Phillies, Braves, then everyone else. Still there have been a few surprises. The Phils have the best record in baseball despite what has been primarily an anemic offense (save the two 14 run outburst they’ve had in the past week). Anyone who has regularly watched this team can tell you they haven’t played their best baseball, but you can’t argue with the results. The Braves have had the same problems as the Phillies, but still are among the top teams in the league and look like a good bet for the Wild Card at this point. The Mets and Nationals have been hanging on, and although they’re both only .500, it’s fairly impressive considering how many issues each of those teams has had. The usually pesky Marlins have completely fallen apart, and they seem to be ready for next season and their new ballpark.
Current Standings:
1. Phillies
2. Braves
3. Mets
4. Nationals
5. Marlins
My Pre-Season Prediction:
1. Phillies
2. Braves
3. Marlins
4. Nationals
5. Mets
Mid-season Prediction:
1. Phillies
2. Braves (wild card)
3. Mets
4. Nationals
5. Marlins
NL Central
Raise your hand if you had the Pirates in the NL Central race this year. The Pirates locked in a four team race for the Central with the Brewers, Cardinals, and Reds. The Bucs have been a good story, but unfortunately I can’t see them winning the division. Still, it would be nice to see them finish over .500. The Cardinals have held on despite no Adam Wainwright and an injured and mostly ineffective (for him) Albert Pujols. Lance Berkman has been a huge surprise for them. The Brewers are up there because of Fielder, Braun, and Weeks. The Reds are under .500, but still only 4 games back. You might as well cancel the rest of the season for the Cubs and Astros.It’s a tough call between the Cardinals and Brewers right now; they are actually very similar teams. I gave the edge to the Brewers to start the year, so I will stick with them.
Current Standings:
1. Brewers
2. Cardinals
3. Pirates
4. Reds
5. Cubs
6. Astros
My Pre-Season predictions:
1. Brewers
2. Reds (wild card)
3. Cubs (I don’t know what I was thinking)
4. Cardinals
5. Astros
6. Pirates
My mid-season prediction:
1. Brewers
2. Cardinals
3. Reds
4. Pirates
5. Cubs
6. Astros
NL West
The NL West race is usually exciting to the last week of the season, but I don’t think that will be the case this year. Yes, the D’Backs are only 3 games behind the Giants, but I don’t have too much confidence in Arizona for the rest of the season. Name one D’Backs pitcher besides Dan Haren. Exactly. If any team can catch the Giants, it’s the Rockies, who always seem to have a second half run in them. They’re 8.5 games out, but I could see that gap closing by September. As for the Giants, they are basically the Phillies with a worse offense, and it looks like Timmy Lincecum had too much fun in the off-season. Still, they’re the favorites for now. The Dodgers are a mess this year, and the Padres proved last season’s success was a fluke.
Current Standings:
1. Giants
2. D’Backs
3. Rockies
4. Dodgers
5. Padres
My Pre-Season Prediction:
1. Giants
2. Rockies
3. Dodgers
4. Padres
5. D’Backs
My Mid-Season Prediction:
1. Giants
2. Rockies
3. D’Backs
4. Dodgers
5. Padres
AL East
Everyone’s favorite division. The Red Sox rebounded from a terrible start to be the best team in the AL, and despite injuries and no contribution from Carl Crawford and John Lackey, they’re the AL favorites right now. The Yankees have been ho-hum, great offense but no depth to their starting pitching, you can still pencil them for at least the wild card. The Rays would probably be winning either the AL Central or West, but again they’re stuck in a horrible situation. The Blue Jays have Jose Bautista, so that’s nice at least. The Orioles continue to be irrelevant. The only intrigue is who will win the division and who will be the wild card.
Current Standings:
1. Red Sox
2. Yankees
3. Rays
4. Blue Jays
5. Orioles
My Pre-Season Prediction:
1. Red Sox
2. Yankees (wild card)
3. Rays
4. Orioles
5. Blue Jays
My Mid-Season Prediction
1. Red Sox
2. Yankees (wild card)
3. Rays
4. Blue Jays
5. Orioles
AL Central
Always the toughest division to predict, and it looks like the AL Central will go down to the wire again this year. The Indians have been in first for a good part of the season, and only trail the Tigers by a half game now. As much as I would like to see a real life Major League, I don’t think the Indians will hang around until the end, unless Pedro Cerrano joins the team. The Tigers are in first, and have the best pitcher in the AL in Justin Verlander, but besides that they don’t really inspire a great deal of confidence. The White Sox seem like a mess, and although they probably have the most talent in the division, I don’t like their chances in the second half. Then there are the Twins, who were horrible for the first couple of months but seem to have turned the corner a bit. If Joe Mauer come back into any kind of form, I am making the bold prediction right now, the Twins will come back from 6.5 games to win the AL Central. Oh yeah, and the Royals are there too.
Current standings:
1. Tigers
2. Indians
3. White Sox
4. Twins
5. Royals
My Pre-Season Prediction
1. White Sox
2. Twins
3. Tigers
4. Indians
5. Royals
My Mid-Season Prediction
1. Twins
2. Tigers
3. Indians
4. White Sox
5. Royals
AL West
It’s already the smallest division in baseball, but it might as well just be the Rangers and Angels. You get the feeling like the Rangers should be running away with this, but the Angels are just 1 game back at the break. I think the Rangers will end up having a comfortable lead in September and win the division easily. Besides Jered Weaver, I can’t think of one standout Angels player this season, but maybe I just don’t pay enough attention to West Coast baseball. The Mariners are better this season, but forget about them, and it looks like Moneyball isn’t working anymore for the A’s.
Current Standings:
1. Rangers
2. Angels
3. Mariners
4. A’s
Pre-Season Prediction
1. Rangers
2. A’s
3. Angels
4. Mariners
Mid-Season Prediction
1. Rangers
2. Angels
3. Mariners
4. A’s
So my projected playoff matchups are:
Phillies vs Brewers
Braves vs Giants
Red Sox vs Twins
Rangers vs Yankees
I like the Phillies and Braves in the NL. The Brewers are basically the Reds of last year, so I don’t see the Phils having a problem with them. Unless the Giants catch lightning in a bottle again, I think they have the weakest lineup of the teams and they will get exposed this year.
In the AL, the Rangers will put a scare in the Yankees again, but I think the Yanks will get their revenge this year. The Red Sox will have little problem with the Twins or whoever wins the Central.
So we’ll have Phillies vs Braves and Red Sox vs Yankees, easily the two best series we could hope for this year. I know this is not a unique pick, but I made it at the beginning of the year, so I will stick with Phillies vs Red Sox in the World Series.
If you have to ask who I would pick in that series, you underestimate how much of a homer I am. Phillies in 7. We have home-field advantage now after all.
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Ranking the Seasons of The Shield
The Shield is my favorite TV show of all-time, and if you watched it, it would probably be your favorite too. So having just completed another run-through of seasons 1-7, I thought I would put together a "power rankings" of the seasons. There is no "bad" season of The Shield, but some are better than others. It's something to do until football season starts.
SPOILER ALERT
7. Season 6
Season 6 was hurt because of the writers strike. You can tell there was a lot more story lines they wanted to get into, but they had to cut the season short. Kevin Hiatt, the guy brough in to replace Vic on the Strike Team, should have had a much bigger role, but he ended up being phased out after a few episodes. And Julien joining the Strike Team should have been a big deal, but there really wasn't much mentioned about it. Obviously the big moment of the season is Vic finding out Shane killed Lem, but even that was a bit rushed; I think it could have waited to the season finale. Instead, the big event of the season finale was Vic finding the blackmail box, which really wasn't all too exciting. And the Armenian side story was clearly rushed as well.
6. Season 3
Season 3 is kind of the hangover season, because so much happens in Season 2 that the show clearly needed to slow down and let everything digest. In the show, the Strike Team decides to be good after robbing the Money Train, which leads to a lot of boredom on their part as they play by the rules. Unfortunately, it also leads to a lot of boredom on our part, as we just want the Strike Team to be doing something illegal again. It picks up late in the season, but the Strike Team breaking up in the last episode isn't really all that dramatic, as by that point, we all see it coming from a mile away.
5. Season 7
Season 7 is hard to rank. The final two episodes of the series are brilliant, and the scene in the second to last episode in which Vic admits to all of his crimes is my favorite scene of the show. But the season as a whole just feels like one really long episode. There is the Pezeula/Mexican cartel storyline which runs throughout the season, which honestly isn't the most exciting storyline. And with the Vic/Shane storyline on-going, we would rather watch that than the Pezeula thing. Julien also continues to be reduced to nothing. Dammit, I want more Julien. But the last two episodes, they make the season.
4. Season 4
Some lists I've seen have had Season 4 as the weakest season, saying Glenn Close was unnecessarily added to the show. She probably wasn't necessary, but the season as a whole is still really good. Antoine Mitchell is the show's best villian (well, next to Kavanaugh of course), and it's probably the first time in the show when you think that there's no way the Strike Team will get out of their mess unscathed. Although they do, the events of this season ultimately begin the steady downfall towards the end of the show. On the down side, this is the first season in which the secondary characters (Danny, Julien, and Aceveda to an extent), take more of a back seat to the Strike Team, Dutch, and Claudette. Honestly, since Danny and Julien don't have much to do after season 3, I would have had them be the cops killed in season 4, instead of the two random ones. It definitely would have made for a more meaningful storyline.
3. Season 5
It's tough to put Season 5 at even number 3 on the list, because almost everything about it is so good. Kavanaugh is one of the best bad guys in TV history, even though he's not really a bad guy. And of course, Shane killing Lem is the most shocking moment of the show, something that you really can't see coming until maybe right before it happens. The only reason it's at number 3 and not higher is because, like season 7, it feels like one really long episode. There's only one important storyline, but it's still a damn good one.
2. Season 1
Let's get this out of the way first: the pilot episode is the greatest pilot in TV history, I don't think there's anything that even comes close. The entire tone of the show is set at the end of the pilot. No matter how many "good" things Vic does throughout the series, he still killed a cop in the very first episode, and that carries throughout to the very last show. There's also a good balance between Strike Team and Aceveda stories, Dutch and Claudette stories, and Danny and Julien stories. There are a few episodes in which nothing really happens, but they clearly needed some filler. The season finale doesn't really blow you away either. Still, amazing for a first season.
1. Season 2
Season 2 is the absolute prime of the show. Unlike season 1, there aren't many filler episodes, and there are plenty of storylines to keep every episode fresh. Like season 1, there's a great balance between characters, and it isn't just about the Strike Team. The Armenian Money Train, much like Vic's murder of Terry, carries throughout the rest of the series, and really if you follow what happens, it's the downfall of everything for the Strike Team. Money train leads to Lem burning the money, which leads to Shane leaving the team, which leads to him working with Antoine Mitchell, which leads to Lem having to get the heroin for Shane, which leads to Shane killing Lem, which leads to the fued between Shane and Vic, which ultimately blows everything up. So there you go. Bottom line: Season 2 of The Shield is better than anything on TV
SPOILER ALERT
7. Season 6
Season 6 was hurt because of the writers strike. You can tell there was a lot more story lines they wanted to get into, but they had to cut the season short. Kevin Hiatt, the guy brough in to replace Vic on the Strike Team, should have had a much bigger role, but he ended up being phased out after a few episodes. And Julien joining the Strike Team should have been a big deal, but there really wasn't much mentioned about it. Obviously the big moment of the season is Vic finding out Shane killed Lem, but even that was a bit rushed; I think it could have waited to the season finale. Instead, the big event of the season finale was Vic finding the blackmail box, which really wasn't all too exciting. And the Armenian side story was clearly rushed as well.
6. Season 3
Season 3 is kind of the hangover season, because so much happens in Season 2 that the show clearly needed to slow down and let everything digest. In the show, the Strike Team decides to be good after robbing the Money Train, which leads to a lot of boredom on their part as they play by the rules. Unfortunately, it also leads to a lot of boredom on our part, as we just want the Strike Team to be doing something illegal again. It picks up late in the season, but the Strike Team breaking up in the last episode isn't really all that dramatic, as by that point, we all see it coming from a mile away.
5. Season 7
Season 7 is hard to rank. The final two episodes of the series are brilliant, and the scene in the second to last episode in which Vic admits to all of his crimes is my favorite scene of the show. But the season as a whole just feels like one really long episode. There is the Pezeula/Mexican cartel storyline which runs throughout the season, which honestly isn't the most exciting storyline. And with the Vic/Shane storyline on-going, we would rather watch that than the Pezeula thing. Julien also continues to be reduced to nothing. Dammit, I want more Julien. But the last two episodes, they make the season.
4. Season 4
Some lists I've seen have had Season 4 as the weakest season, saying Glenn Close was unnecessarily added to the show. She probably wasn't necessary, but the season as a whole is still really good. Antoine Mitchell is the show's best villian (well, next to Kavanaugh of course), and it's probably the first time in the show when you think that there's no way the Strike Team will get out of their mess unscathed. Although they do, the events of this season ultimately begin the steady downfall towards the end of the show. On the down side, this is the first season in which the secondary characters (Danny, Julien, and Aceveda to an extent), take more of a back seat to the Strike Team, Dutch, and Claudette. Honestly, since Danny and Julien don't have much to do after season 3, I would have had them be the cops killed in season 4, instead of the two random ones. It definitely would have made for a more meaningful storyline.
3. Season 5
It's tough to put Season 5 at even number 3 on the list, because almost everything about it is so good. Kavanaugh is one of the best bad guys in TV history, even though he's not really a bad guy. And of course, Shane killing Lem is the most shocking moment of the show, something that you really can't see coming until maybe right before it happens. The only reason it's at number 3 and not higher is because, like season 7, it feels like one really long episode. There's only one important storyline, but it's still a damn good one.
2. Season 1
Let's get this out of the way first: the pilot episode is the greatest pilot in TV history, I don't think there's anything that even comes close. The entire tone of the show is set at the end of the pilot. No matter how many "good" things Vic does throughout the series, he still killed a cop in the very first episode, and that carries throughout to the very last show. There's also a good balance between Strike Team and Aceveda stories, Dutch and Claudette stories, and Danny and Julien stories. There are a few episodes in which nothing really happens, but they clearly needed some filler. The season finale doesn't really blow you away either. Still, amazing for a first season.
1. Season 2
Season 2 is the absolute prime of the show. Unlike season 1, there aren't many filler episodes, and there are plenty of storylines to keep every episode fresh. Like season 1, there's a great balance between characters, and it isn't just about the Strike Team. The Armenian Money Train, much like Vic's murder of Terry, carries throughout the rest of the series, and really if you follow what happens, it's the downfall of everything for the Strike Team. Money train leads to Lem burning the money, which leads to Shane leaving the team, which leads to him working with Antoine Mitchell, which leads to Lem having to get the heroin for Shane, which leads to Shane killing Lem, which leads to the fued between Shane and Vic, which ultimately blows everything up. So there you go. Bottom line: Season 2 of The Shield is better than anything on TV
Thursday, May 26, 2011
A return? Yes. Part 2
Apparently I mixed up my 4th round picks. I just wanted to make sure to get to Alex Henery. Anyway:
4. Casey Matthews, LB Oregon
No problem with this pick. He was a good player in college, probably doesn't have the athleticism to be great in the NFL, but he could develop into a run stopping Jeremiah Trotter type.
Grade: A-
5. Dion Lewis, RB, Pitt
I thought they might go RB higher, since if Jerome Harrison leaves they won't have a legit backup for Shady McCoy, but this is the Eagles we're talking about. They don't have use for one running back, much less two. Still, this is a good pick here.
Grade: A-
5. Julian Vandevelde, G, Iowa
Eh, would have rather seen a backup tackle then another guard here. He wasn't rated very high and it's hard to get excited about this one.
Grade: C
6. Jason Kelce, C, Cincinnati
Same here.
Grade: C
6. Brian Rolle, LB, Ohio St.
Rolle will never be an every down player, because he is just too small for the position. But this is the kind of guy who will make a huge difference on special teams. Works for a 6th round pick.
Grade: B
7. Greg Lloyd Jr, LB, UConn
His dad was a great linebacker for the Steelers, but this was probably one linebacker too many. Don't see him making the team.
Grade: C
7. Stanley Havili, FB, USC
He's an interesting player. He's listed as a fullback, but he basically plays like a big running back because he's not much of a blocker. If he learns out to block, he could be a steal in the 7th.
Grade: B
Overall
Grading a draft before any of the players have even played is basically an excercise in futility, because nobody knows exactly how these guys will turn out. What we can grade is the team's draft strategy, and how they picked players based on their projected value. In that regard, the Eagles didn't do so great this year. Their first four rounds consisted of several players which could have conceivably been had with a later pick. However, the Eagles always target the players they want before a draft, and make sure they get them. If they can't, they trade down. I like Danny Watkins, but again, you have to question if Gabe Carimi gives you better value there. In the third round, I think there are higher projected CBs than Curtis Marsh. Again, these players could turn out to be just fine, but this is all we have to go on right now. And you still can't defend choosing a kicker in the fourth round to me. Overall, I don't come out of this draft with a ton of excitement.
Grade: C+
4. Casey Matthews, LB Oregon
No problem with this pick. He was a good player in college, probably doesn't have the athleticism to be great in the NFL, but he could develop into a run stopping Jeremiah Trotter type.
Grade: A-
5. Dion Lewis, RB, Pitt
I thought they might go RB higher, since if Jerome Harrison leaves they won't have a legit backup for Shady McCoy, but this is the Eagles we're talking about. They don't have use for one running back, much less two. Still, this is a good pick here.
Grade: A-
5. Julian Vandevelde, G, Iowa
Eh, would have rather seen a backup tackle then another guard here. He wasn't rated very high and it's hard to get excited about this one.
Grade: C
6. Jason Kelce, C, Cincinnati
Same here.
Grade: C
6. Brian Rolle, LB, Ohio St.
Rolle will never be an every down player, because he is just too small for the position. But this is the kind of guy who will make a huge difference on special teams. Works for a 6th round pick.
Grade: B
7. Greg Lloyd Jr, LB, UConn
His dad was a great linebacker for the Steelers, but this was probably one linebacker too many. Don't see him making the team.
Grade: C
7. Stanley Havili, FB, USC
He's an interesting player. He's listed as a fullback, but he basically plays like a big running back because he's not much of a blocker. If he learns out to block, he could be a steal in the 7th.
Grade: B
Overall
Grading a draft before any of the players have even played is basically an excercise in futility, because nobody knows exactly how these guys will turn out. What we can grade is the team's draft strategy, and how they picked players based on their projected value. In that regard, the Eagles didn't do so great this year. Their first four rounds consisted of several players which could have conceivably been had with a later pick. However, the Eagles always target the players they want before a draft, and make sure they get them. If they can't, they trade down. I like Danny Watkins, but again, you have to question if Gabe Carimi gives you better value there. In the third round, I think there are higher projected CBs than Curtis Marsh. Again, these players could turn out to be just fine, but this is all we have to go on right now. And you still can't defend choosing a kicker in the fourth round to me. Overall, I don't come out of this draft with a ton of excitement.
Grade: C+
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
A return? Yes. Part 1
In a return as monumental as Michael Jordan coming back wearing number 45, as stunning at The Rock coming back to Wrestlemania 27, the Better than Tom Stinson Lifting Journal is back. For now.
I couldn't let an NFL Draft go by without at least saying something, so here's part 1 of my Eagles Draft thoughts. A little late I know, but hey, not like the NFL season is starting anytime soon:
1. Danny Watkins, G, Baylor
I was not very thrilled when Danny Watkins was announced as the Eagles pick. Two of the Eagles projected top targets, Gabe Carimi and Jimmy Smith, were both on the board and it seemed like a no-brainer that one of them would be in midnight green. The Watkins pick is getting bashed for a couple of reasons. First, he’s 26 years old now, and he’ll be 27 during his rookie season. Second, he most likely could have been had later than the 23rd overall pick. I really don’t care about the age thing. If he was a running back or wide receiver, it would be an issue. But many o-lineman play well into their late 30’s. I can see Watkins easily sticking around for 10 years, despite the fact Andy Reid typically does not keep guys over 30. I think he’ll make an exception this time. Watkins was the best guard throughout the off-season workouts, and I think he’ll end up being a great pick up. The only problem I still have is passing on Carimi. RT is a much more important position than RG, and Carimi offered more value at the pick than Watkins did. Still, Watkins will start from day one and be a good lineman for the Birds.
Grade: B
2. Jaiquwan Jarrett, S, Temple
Many people think Jarrett was a reach in the 2nd round. I really don’t see it that way. This was a very weak draft for safeties, and Jarrett was considered by many as the 2nd best safety in the draft behind Rahim Moore. The Eagles needed safety help with Mikell most likely gone and Nate Allen’s season uncertain with a knee injury. If the Eagles passed on Jarrett at 54, he probably would not have lasted much longer considered the safety class this year. I have no problem with this pick.
Grade: A-
3. Curtis Marsh, CB, Utah State
Admittedly, I had never heard of Curtis Marsh before he was selected. He seems like a talented player who will need to be coached up a bit before he’ll make an impact with the Birds. He’s not going to fill the immediate need that still remains at CB. It’s clear the Eagles will go hard after the top corners in free agency, if we ever get free agency. It seems like maybe this was a bit of a reach again, but from what I’ve read, there’s potential.
Grade: B-
4. Alex Henrey, K, Nebraska
It feels strange even putting the letter K next to a draft pick. Sorry, you can try to dress this pick up all you want: he was the best kicker in the draft, David Akers is at the end of his career, etc. This is still a lousy pick. There’s no reason to take a kicker before the 6th round of the draft, I don’t care how good he is. The same rule in fantasy football for kickers applies to real football for kickers. Some idiots will take the “good” kickers early, but there’s no reason to waste an early pick on one. Will he be a good kicker? It seems like he will be, but good kickers can be found elsewhere. Did the Eagles take Akers in the 4th round of the draft? No, they just found him, like most kickers. Waste of a pick.
Grade: D
I couldn't let an NFL Draft go by without at least saying something, so here's part 1 of my Eagles Draft thoughts. A little late I know, but hey, not like the NFL season is starting anytime soon:
1. Danny Watkins, G, Baylor
I was not very thrilled when Danny Watkins was announced as the Eagles pick. Two of the Eagles projected top targets, Gabe Carimi and Jimmy Smith, were both on the board and it seemed like a no-brainer that one of them would be in midnight green. The Watkins pick is getting bashed for a couple of reasons. First, he’s 26 years old now, and he’ll be 27 during his rookie season. Second, he most likely could have been had later than the 23rd overall pick. I really don’t care about the age thing. If he was a running back or wide receiver, it would be an issue. But many o-lineman play well into their late 30’s. I can see Watkins easily sticking around for 10 years, despite the fact Andy Reid typically does not keep guys over 30. I think he’ll make an exception this time. Watkins was the best guard throughout the off-season workouts, and I think he’ll end up being a great pick up. The only problem I still have is passing on Carimi. RT is a much more important position than RG, and Carimi offered more value at the pick than Watkins did. Still, Watkins will start from day one and be a good lineman for the Birds.
Grade: B
2. Jaiquwan Jarrett, S, Temple
Many people think Jarrett was a reach in the 2nd round. I really don’t see it that way. This was a very weak draft for safeties, and Jarrett was considered by many as the 2nd best safety in the draft behind Rahim Moore. The Eagles needed safety help with Mikell most likely gone and Nate Allen’s season uncertain with a knee injury. If the Eagles passed on Jarrett at 54, he probably would not have lasted much longer considered the safety class this year. I have no problem with this pick.
Grade: A-
3. Curtis Marsh, CB, Utah State
Admittedly, I had never heard of Curtis Marsh before he was selected. He seems like a talented player who will need to be coached up a bit before he’ll make an impact with the Birds. He’s not going to fill the immediate need that still remains at CB. It’s clear the Eagles will go hard after the top corners in free agency, if we ever get free agency. It seems like maybe this was a bit of a reach again, but from what I’ve read, there’s potential.
Grade: B-
4. Alex Henrey, K, Nebraska
It feels strange even putting the letter K next to a draft pick. Sorry, you can try to dress this pick up all you want: he was the best kicker in the draft, David Akers is at the end of his career, etc. This is still a lousy pick. There’s no reason to take a kicker before the 6th round of the draft, I don’t care how good he is. The same rule in fantasy football for kickers applies to real football for kickers. Some idiots will take the “good” kickers early, but there’s no reason to waste an early pick on one. Will he be a good kicker? It seems like he will be, but good kickers can be found elsewhere. Did the Eagles take Akers in the 4th round of the draft? No, they just found him, like most kickers. Waste of a pick.
Grade: D
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