Monday, October 18, 2010

NLCS Outlook: Stop Pitching to Cody Ross

Through two games of the NLCS, we are all squared at one game apiece. It's not too surprising of an outcome, although most would have probably though that if the series was 1-1, it would be because Halladay won game 1 and Oswalt lost game 2, but we got the reverse instead. Here are some thoughts heading into Game 3:

- Cody Ross. Unbelievable. He can take his stupid bald/beard combo and his little hop-step and GTFO. Cody, you're not Sammy Sosa, stop hopping. Seriously though, Ross has basically been the Giants entire offense (except a Pat Burrell fly ball that should have been caught and a Juan Uribe double). I'm going to make a bold prediction: Cody Ross will NOT hit another home run in this series.
If that's true, then the question becomes where does San Fran get their offense from, especially if Uribe doesn't play. Buster Posey has looked like a rookie, Aubrey Huff hasn't done anything, and I wouldn't count on too much more from Burrell. So if the Phils can avoid giving up more than one long ball a game, I can't see the Giants scoring more than 2-3 runs per the rest of the series.

- That being said, the Phils offense has continued to struggle. They once again did what they've been doing best all season: capitalizing on fortunate opportunities. If you make an error against the Phillies, or if a bad call goes against you, the Phils will make you pay for it. But they have to start hitting more consistently. I'm also not crazy about the way Charlie is setting up the lineups considering the way some guys are hitting right now. Here's what I would do:

Against righties:
1. Victorino
2. Polanco
3. Utley
4. Howard
5. Werth
6. Ibanez
7. Ruiz
8. Rollins

Against lefties:
1. Victorino
2. Polanco
3. Utley
4. Werth
5. Howard
6. Ruiz
7. Ibanez
8. Rollins

The only change I make in the right-handed lineup is moving Rollins down to 8. It's not just a demotion because of how he's been hitting (last night's big double aside), but it also breaks up the speed in the lineup.
I didn't like how Charlie had the lineup set last night against a lefty. Polanco is a perfect 2 hitter, but he's not an ideal 3 hitter. A 3 hitter needs to have some power. Also, Utley isn't so bad against lefties that he needs to hit at 2 instead of 3. I would put Werth in the clean up spot then, in order to break up Utley and Howard. Ruiz and Ibanez would follow, to again break up the lefties. I doubt Charlie would ever move Howard out of the 4 spot, but I think it would be a good move.

- I like the Phillies pitching matchups the next 2 games. Hamels has been brilliant, and Matt Cain has been hit around by the Phils in the past. Blanton vs Bumgardner in game 4 might seem like an advantage for the Giants, but remember, Blanton has pitched well in big spots before, and Bumgardner is still a rookie. However, if the Phils do lose game 3, I wouldn't be surprised if Charlie called on Halladay for Game 4. Obviously, the Phillies couldn't afford to go down 3-1 in the series.

- I still like my prediction of Phillies in six games. Everyone was freaking out after game 1, but it's not like many of us thought the Phillies would sweep this series. If the Phillies can capitalize on the opportunities the Giants give them, they should be able to score the 3-4 runs in each game they need to win.

No comments:

Post a Comment