Better than the Tom Stinson Lifting Journal: September 2011

I realize my updates recently have been about as weak as Tom Stinson himself, but I couldn't let the NFL season start without a proper preview. Will I be a homer this year and pick the Eagles to win it all? I guess you have to read on to find out (or just skip to the end).

AFC East

1. New England Patriots
I toyed with the idea of putting the Jets up here, but when it's all said and done, how can you not pick a full strength Patriots squad to win the East? They were 14-2 last year before inexplicably getting bounced by the Jets in the playoffs, but you have to imagine that will only motivate them. They're only going to be better this year with the addition of a (seemingly) re-focused Chad Ochocinco and a (seemingly) re-focused Albert Haynesworth. There are still some question marks on D (where will the pass rush come from?), but overall, they're still the Patriots.
Record: 14-2

2. New York Jets
There's been a lot made of the Jets signing Plaxico Burress, but when you consider they also lost Braylon Edwards, they come out about even in the WR department. Other than that, they made very few notable additions and also lost Brad Smith, Damien Woody, Jerricho Cotchery, and Shaun Ellis.  That doesn't mean the Jets won't be good this year. They still have one of the better defenses in the league, and Mark Sanchez, while not incredible last year, should only get better in his third season as starter. They know they can beat the Patriots, but I don't see them getting any further than they did last year.
Record: 11-5 (wild card)

3. Miami Dolphins
A lot of people are down on the Dolphins this year. It's easy to understand why: Chad Henne hasn't shown much at QB, their running attack will come down to a rookie and Reggie Bush, and the defense isn't going to scare anyone. Still, I think there's enough talent here to stay out of the bottom of the barrel. Henne hasn't been good, but he's been far from the worst QB in history like some people seem to think he is. Bush isn't a true RB, but he's still a dangerous weapon to have. And Brandon Marshall is still a top WR even though he is insane. They will probably get scored on a ton, but they'll still steal a game here and there.
Record: 6-10

4. Buffalo Bills
The Bills are a sleeper pick by some, but I'm not seeing it. Compare this team to the Dolphins and I don't see where the big differences are. Ryan Fitzpatrick might be slightly better than Chad Henne, but that's like saying watching paint dry is slightly better than watching grass grow. I would actually give the skill player edge to the Dolphins, since the Bills only WR of note is Stevie Johnson, who is the next in a long line of WRs who is no where near as good as he thinks he is. Like the Dolphins, they'll sneak up on a team once in a while, but that's about it.
Record: 5-11

AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
It's hard to find a team that's more balanced from top to bottom. They've always had the running game, but now the passing game should be better than ever with Big Ben and the best corps of WR he's ever had. The Steelers defense, as always, will be the Steelers defense. They still might be somewhat susceptible in the passing game, but they seem to get by with just average cornerbacks. They offensive line might be a problem, but there are few QBs in the league who are better under pressure than Big Ben. Hard to see them not making a deep run again.
Record: 12-4

2. Baltimore Ravens
The more I hear about the Ravens, the less confident I get about them. They didn't do a whole lot to improve in the offseason. Adding Lee Evans was nice, it this was 2006, but he's not the same player he used to be. The same can be said for Anquan Boldin, and add in the loss of Derrick Mason, and Joe Flacco is not going to have a whole lot of weapons. Speaking of Flacco, he's been solid, but he hasn't really made the big leap like a lot of people have expected him to. Luckily, their run game should be better than ever, with Ray Rice and the addition of fullback Vonta Leach, who was a big reason for Arian Foster's success with the Texans last year. The defense will be good as always, but they didn't add too much there either. They'll be good, but it's hard to see them making any real noise this year.
Record: 10-6 (wild card)

3. Cleveland Browns
The Browns were a pesky team last year, scoring a few upsets despite a QB situation which included Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace. Luckily for them, Colt McCoy took over and showed some good signs in his rookie year. McCoy should continue to improve, however he has next to nothing at WR. Quick, name two Browns WRs. Exactly. The offense should be led by the running game and Peyton Hillis, who came out of nowhere to have a big year. However, he has now inherited the Madden Curse. I'm not sure what to say about the defense except they're just kinda eh. That's the kind of season the Browns will have, but they're getting better.
Record: 6-10

4. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are a mess. Carson Palmer "retired" rather than stay another year with the team, and with the way things have been for this franchise I can't really blame him. Andy Dalton, the Ginger Ninja from The College University, will take over. He might be decent eventually but he's hardly ready this year. Cedric Benson might get to 1,000 yards again, but he'll average 3.0 yards a carry doing so. A.J Green, the rookie WR from Georgia, should develop into a great player, but he won't do much this year. The defense lost probably their best player in CB Johnathan Joseph. They were bad last year and will probably only get worse. They're in the running for worst team in the league, but hey, it's the Bengals.
Record: 2-14

AFC South

1. Houston Texans
Stop me if you've heard this before: this is the season the Texans will finally break out. I think I've said it every season since about 2005.  But the Texans once again disappointed and finished 6-10 last year. It definitely wasn't the offense's fault. Arian Foster was the best RB in the league last season, dominating both on the ground and in the passing game. There's some injury concern heading into the season, the biggest fantasy football injury of all-time potentially, but it seems like he'll be ok. The Matt Schaub/Andre Johnson combo was great again, and should only be getting better. The return of TE Owen Daniels for a whole season should help too. The Texans went 6-10 last season because of their defense, plain and simple. They did get a lot of help in the offseason though. They added CB Johnathan Joseph and S Daniel Manning and drafted DL J.J Watt. In addition, they hired Wade Philips as their D-Coordinator, and while Wade should never have another head coaching job, he's a great Coordinator. Is this the year the Texans finally break out? Sure.
Record: 10-6

2. Tennessee Titans
Here's a team that could come out of nowhere to make some noise. Now that Chris Johnson is happy, this could be potentially one of the best offenses in the AFC. We know what Johnson can do, and if Kenny Britt can stay out of jail (about a 50/50 chance), he gives the Titans another dangerous weapon at WR. Matt Hasslebeck isn't going to set the world on fire, but I think given enough weapons, he could be just fine at QB until Jake Locker is ready. The defense isn't anything special, but with the AFC South in flux the way it is this year, I wouldn't be surprised if the Titans made a sneaky run at the division title.
Record: 8-8

3. Indianapolis Colts

Obviously there is a big question mark next to this one. For years we've been wondering what would happen to the Colts if Peyton Manning went down. No team seems to rely more on one player than the Colts do on Manning. Manning has never missed a start, but from the glimpses we've seen of backup QBs playing in his place, it is not pretty. There's still some mystery of how long Peyton will be out, but it's looking worse and worse everyday. Consider this though, even if Peyton only misses, say, 3 games, the Colts would be lucky to win one of those games (sorry Kerry). They went 10-6 last year with Peyton, so that would leave them at 8-8 this year. This is a team on the decline even with Peyton in there, and without him, there's no way they come close to making the playoffs again.
Record: 7-9

4. Jacksonville Jaguars
If you've read this blog before (all 3 of you), you know I think the Jaguars are the most boring, nondescript team in the league. Any chance they had of being decent this year went out the window a couple days ago when they decided to cut David Garrard. Now I know Garrard isn't a franchise QB, but he's above-average and was one of the reasons this team was even able to get anywhere close to 8 wins last year. Now they have to go to Luke McCown (?) until 1st round pick Blaine Gabbert is ready, but either way they're not getting anywhere close to the playoffs. Maurice Jones-Drew is a talented RB, but he already has some injuries concerns, and now that he has to shoulder more of the load I don't see him lasting a whole season. On defense, the Jags threw a bunch of money at some above-average players like they seem to do every off-season. In the running for worst team this year.
Record: 4-12

AFC West

1. San Diego Chargers
The Chargers statistically had the number one ranked offense and defense last year. They also outscored their opponents by 119 points. Sounds great, but they only finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs last year. I'm not sure how either, but apparently their special teams was godawful. Phillip Rivers is only getting better, and having Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates back for an entire season will make this an explosive offense. They don't have a lot of big names on defense, but they've always played well as a unit and there's no reason that shouldn't continue this year. Barring some unforeseen fluke again this year, the Chargers will win the West.
Record: 11-5

2. Kansas City Chiefs
Most people look at the Chiefs as the fluke team of 2010.   They won the West last year but it doesn't seem like they were really that good. They only went 2-4 in their mediocre division and had only 3 wins away from Arrowhead. Still, there's enough talent on this team to make another run at a division title. Matt Cassel isn't great, but he's effective enough to win games. Dwayne Bowe had a monster year at WR, but he's always been inconsistent, and without a reliable target on the other side it's hard to know what they'll get from him this year. The Chiefs' biggest weapon is undoubtedly Jamaal Charles, who averaged an incredibly 6.4 yards a carry last year. There's a lot made about how the Chiefs should use him more, and I think this is the year they finally do.
The defense might be sneakily good. They have a great secondary, two great LBs in Derrick Johnson and Tamba Hali, and although Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey have underperformed based on their draft position, they've still talented players. I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up having one of the better defenses in the league this year. I don't they'll beat out the Chargers again, but they'll hang around in the wild card race this year.
Record: 9-7

3. Denver Broncos
Ok, I'm just going to use this space to talk about Tim Tebow. I hated the guy in college, mostly because he was overhyped, made some ridiculous speeches, and he played at Florida. Still, you have to respect the guy for seemingly being a good person. It's unbelievable to me the kind of negative reaction this guy gets from the media now. No, he's not a prototypical QB and he has a lot of work to do. Still, when he came in for the Broncos last year, he won some games and had pretty solid stats doing so. He had a better QB rating last year than fellow rookie Sam Bradford, and who's the next big thing going into this season? I don't know why Tebow is not getting a chance. Kyle Orton is an ok QB, but he's not a franchise guy. It seems like Tebow will never get a chance with the Broncos, so hopefully he will somewhere else.
Record: 6-10

4. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders were 8-8 last year and swept the AFC West. No, I'm not sure how it happened either. They won't be 8-8 again this year. Jason Campbell is just Jason Campbell, he's not going to do anything special. Their best player is Darren McFadden, and he'll carry the load again on offense as long as he stays healthy. Besides that, there's not much to talk about on offense. The Raiders are pretty solid on defense, but losing their best player Nnamdi Asomugha (where did he go again?) isn't going to help much. They're the Raiders, I think that wraps it up.
Record: 5-11

NFC East

1. Philadelphia Eagles
There's been enough said about the Eagles this offseason. Overall, they've improved more than any team on paper. Of course, nothing is won on paper, especially in football. As we've seen this preseason, this is hardly the Dream Team. There are still major issues, starting on the offensive line. They looked like a mess, and they will start the season with a line that has never played together, with guys playing in spots they've never played before. Needless to say, it's an issue. They could end up ok, but right now it's not looking good.
The issues on defense are up the middle of the field. They're starting 4th round rookie Casey Matthews at MLB, who could end up being a solid player but isn't ready to lead the defense yet. While Jamar Cheney looked good last season, the other starter Moises Fokou hasn't done anything spectacular. The safeties are also questionable, with recent addition Jarrad Page starting with Kurt Coleman. We really don't know anything about Page, and Coleman was decent last year but far from a sure thing. Nate Allen is still hurt, and Jaiquawn Jarrett is a rookie.
Of course, there is a lot of good here too. Michael Vick is the most dangerous player in the league when he's on his game. He showed last year that he can win games by himself. However, I still question his consistency and wonder if we'll get the same Vick that we got for the majority of last year. There's $100 million the Eagles are gambling to say he will be. LeSean McCoy looked great last year and should only be better both on the ground and receiving out of the backfield. There are some question marks in the WR corps, with DeSean Jackson's contract situation looming over him, as well as last year's concussions, and Jeremy Maclin's illness keeping him out for the preseason. However, if everything goes right there are few better combos in the NFL. If they get any production out of Ronnie Brown and Steve Smith, it's only an added bonus.
There's plenty of good on D too. The D-Line should be the best in the Reid era. Cullen Jenkins is a big upgrade at DT along with Mike Patterson. And if Jason Babin can repeat last year's performance, him and Trent Cole will be among the best pass rushing duos in the league. The CBs obviously got a huge upgrade with both Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie added to Asante Samuel. What was a questionable spot last year will be a huge strength this year.
So where does this leave this team as a whole? If everything goes right, they'll win the East easily and be the NFC favorite going into the playoffs. But there are things that could go wrong, especially on the offensive line, and if Vick can't match his performance from last year. Still, they vastly improved a team that won the East last year, and there's no reason to think they can't do it again.
Record: 12-4

2. Dallas Cowboys
Last year was a disaster for the Cowboys. Nothing went right, Tony Romo got injured early, and the team seemed to quit on Wade Phillips before Jason Garrett was finally named the head coach. There's just too much talent on this team to repeat their disappointment of last year. Romo was having a great season before he got injured, and he has plenty of weapons including Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten, not to mention getting rid of Roy Williams is probably an improvement. With Marion Barber gone, Felix Jones should finally get a chance to show he should have been starting all along in Dallas.
The defense is more questionable, but they'll still get plenty of pressure on QBs with DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer. The secondary has talent, but they seemed to get burned a lot. Still, if they put it together they'll be a good unit. With all the attention on the Eagles, the Cowboys offseason has finally been quiet, which might just be the best thing that could have happened to them.
Record: 10-6 (wild card)

3. New York Giants
The Giants had one of the worst offseasons in recent memory. I can't even think of all the players they lost either to free agency or injury, but there's a lot of them, including first round pick Prince Amukamara who would have helped this team a lot. Besides that, there hasn't been a lot of change in New York. They should have a good offense despite Eli's frequent interceptions and frequent pansiness. Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham are up there with the best WR duos and Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs will lead a good rushing attack. However, they were hit hard on the o-line in free agency so Eli will be under a lot of pressure, which will surely lead to plenty of Eli spin moves.
The defense was hit hard by injury, especially the linebackers. They'll still get a pash rush like they always do, but with a questionable secondary they have to. They'll still be a decent team who will be in the playoff hunt, but they certainly didn't get any better than they were last year.
Record: 9-7

4. Washington Redskins
There are those who are hopping on the Redskins bandwagon because they have looked good in preseason. The Lions were 4-0 in the preseason in 2008. They went 0-16 in the regular season.    Rexy Grossman is their starting QB.  That'll sum up the offense. The defense is not much better. I'm done talking about the Redskins.
Record: 4-12

NFC North

1. Green Bay Packers
The Packers didn't have a great regular season last year. They were 10-6 in a weak division and barely sneaked into the playoffs. But they got hot at the right time and rode it to a Super Bowl title. They should be better in the regular season this year, as injuries hurt them a lot last season. There's not much different about this team than last year's. Aaron Rodgers is now an elite QB and he has plenty of weapons to throw to. Their running game might be weak again, but they didn't need one last year. The defense will be great, and despite the lost of Cullen Jenkins they are strong from top to bottom. Not much else to say except they should win this division easily this year.
Record: 12-4

2. Chicago Bears
I really don't want to like the Bears. They play a boring, sloppy brand of football. But it worked last year; they won the division and were perhaps a Jay Cutler injury away from making it to the Super Bowl. I just have a feeling that they'll win more games than they should again this year, but they won't be beating out the Packers for the division title. Cutler is erratic, but he seems to get the job done more often than not. Roy Williams was terrible in Dallas, but he's the de facto best receiver in Chicago, and there's a chance he could help out. Adding Marion Barber should help out Matt Forte in the running game. The defense has always been a strong point for the Bears, and there's no reason to think that shouldn't continue this season. They'll be ugly again, but you just know they'll be around in the playoff race.
Record: 9-7

3. Detroit Lions
There's no more room on the Lions bandwagon. I've seen people predict the Lions to win the Super Bowl. The same Lions team that went 6-10 last year. There's no doubt this team has a lot of talent, but people need to relax on them a little bit. Matthew Stafford could be a great QB, but there's really no telling right now. We haven't seen enough of him to make any decisions on him yet. He has one of the best WR in the league in Calvin Johnson, and another good one in Nate Burleson, so Stafford could easily put up big numbers if he stays healthy. I'm still not sold on their running game of Jahvid Best and 98 other random RBs they picked up.
The defensive line gets a lot of attention with Ndamakong Suh and rookie Nick Fairley, and they should be a nightmare for opposing D-lines. However, the rest of the defense leaves a lot to be desired. I honestly don't know who they have at linebacker and in the secondary besides Louis Delmas at safety, so I guess I need to do my Lions homework. I think they'll put up a lot of points this year, but they're going to give up their fair share of points as well. They're getting there, but not quite yet.
Record: 8-8

4. Minnesota Vikings
Poor Donovan. First he gets bench for Rexy in Washington, when we all know he never really had a chance there anyway. Now he is basically an after thought in Minnesota. At least he as Adrian Peterson, easily the best running back he has ever played with. The problem is the Vikings don't have much else on offense. Percy Harvin is a good weapon, but I'm not sure if he's a surefire no.1 wideout. Bernard Berrian isn't anything special anymore at WR, and that's about all they have on offense. Peterson is going to see a lot of 8 man fronts, just like he did last year.
The defense isn't what it used to be either. Jared Allen and Antoine Winfield are great players, and the linebackers are solid, but they will miss Kevin and Pat Williams up front. Donovan might get them one more win than they did last year. Or he might have a repeat of Washington. He deserves better.
Record: 6-10

NFC South
1. Atlanta Falcons
Before the Eagles went crazy in free agency, the Falcons were the talk of the NFC after they traded up to grab Julio Jones in the draft, addressing one of the few weaknesses a 13-3 team had a year ago. They've been quiet since then, but there's no reason to think they can't match their success from last season. Matt Ryan should only get better, and adding Jones to Roddy White makes the potential for the best WR duo in the league. Michael Turner has had a ton of carries in the last 3 years, but he's still a top RB.
The defense added DE Ray Edwards to what is already a strong group. There are very few weaknesses on this team, with only the offensive line as the only potential issue. They disappointed in the playoffs last year, but they'll be back again.
Record: 12-4

2. New Orleans Saints
The Saints were good last year, but they had to be disappointed by not winning the South and going on to lose in the first round to a 7-9 Seattle team. There's no reason to think they won't have an explosive offense again this year with Drew Brees and several WRs which can score at any time. The running game should be improved as well with Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles. Brees did get hit a lot last year behind a suspect offensive line, and they didn't do too much to improve that in the offseason.
The defense was just ok last year, and besides adding Shaun Rogers at DT it's pretty much the same unit. They make a lot of plays and big turnovers, but they also give up a lot of big plays, as evidenced in their playoff loss last year. The Saints will be good again, but like last year, I don't see them as a more complete team than the Falcons. The offense alone will give them a wild card spot.
Record: 10-6 (wild card)

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs were a huge surprise last year, going 10-6 in a tough division despite starting a lot of young, unheralded players. Josh Freeman was great at QB, throwing 25 TDs to only 6 INTs. He should be even better with another year of experience. LeGarrette Blount went from guy who punched another guy, to undrafted free agent, to running for 1,000 yards despite only starting 9 games last year. If he keeps his head on straight he should do it again this season. Mike Williams was another surprise at WR, catching 11 TDs despite being a 4th round rookie. Kellen Winslow rounds out a young, talented offense.
The defense isn't at the offense's level. They generated no pass rush last year, and despite bringing in some talented rookies, it most likely won't be better immediately. Aqib Talib is a talented corner, he will most likely be in jail before the season ends. Besides last year's first round pick Gerald McCoy, who was just ok last year, there's not much to get excited about on the defensive side of the ball.
I wouldn't say the Bucs were a fluke last year, but they still won a lot of close games (they only had a +22 point differential) and in a tough division it's easy to believe they'll take a step back this year.
Record: 8-8

4. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers had a historically bad season last year. They only scored 17 TDs. The next fewest total was 26 by the Dolphins. Top to bottom they were just a mess last year. I don't think they're quite as bad as 2-14 though. Cam Newton is not ready to play, but he will anyway. He most likely won't throw that well, but he should scramble around a lot and at least make some plays, circa McNabb in his rookie year. They still have a talented RB tandem in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, and if they stay healthy the Panthers should have a good running attack.
There are some good players on defense too, including Charles Johnson, Jon Beason, Thomas Davis, and Chris Gamble. I don't think this team turns it around and makes the playoffs or anything, but if they were in an easier division I think they would win a few more games. Still, they're at the bottom of the South
Record: 5-11

NFC West (The NFC West bores me so I don't want to spend a lot of time on it)
1. Arizona 9-7
2. St Louis 8-8
3. Seattle 7-9
4. San Francisco 6-10

Playoff Teams
AFC
1. New England
2. Pittsburgh
3. San Diego
4. Houston
5. NY Jets
6. Baltimore

NFC
1. Green Bay
2. Philadelphia
3. Atlanta
4. Arizona
5. New Orleans
6. Dallas

Playoffs
San Diego over Baltimore     NY Jets over Houston     Atlanta over Dallas     New Orleans over Arizona

New England over NY Jets     Pittsburgh over San Diego     Green Bay over New Orleans     Philadelphia over Atlanta

New England over Pittsburgh     Green Bay over Philadelphia (in Lambeau, in January, not good)

Super Bowl XLVI
New England over Green Bay

Better than the Tom Stinson Lifting Journal

Friday, September 30, 2011

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